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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Bento

Belenenses

S T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

22%

11%

Points per game

0,9

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 39%

33%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

8 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 9

2 Offside 0

22 Free kicks against 23

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 16. · Pacos Ferreira 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+21	30
2	Porto	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Famalicao	10	7	2	1	+7	23
4	Sp Lisbon	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	+7	16
6	Tondela	11	4	4	3	+1	16
7	Boavista	9	3	6	0	+4	15
8	Santa Clara	10	3	4	3	-2	13
9	Rio Ave	10	3	3	4	+1	12
10	Sp Braga	11	3	3	5	-4	12
11	Moreirense	11	2	5	4	-2	11
12	Gil Vicente	11	2	5	4	-4	11
13	Maritimo	11	2	5	4	-5	11
14	Setubal	9	1	6	2	-4	9
15	Vitoria Setubal	9	1	6	2	-4	9
16	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-9	8
17	Portimonense	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Aves	10	1	0	9	-13	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+17	18
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+13	18
3	Famalicao	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Guimaraes	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Gil Vicente	7	2	5	0	+3	11
6	Boavista	5	2	3	0	+3	9
7	Santa Clara	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
12	Sp Lisbon	4	2	0	2	+1	6
13	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	+1	5
14	Maritimo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-2	4
16	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Aves	4	1	0	3	-1	3
18	Belenenses	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Portimonense	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Tondela	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Sp Lisbon	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+1	11
5	Porto	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Boavista	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-3	6
9	Portimonense	6	1	3	2	-4	6
10	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-3	5
11	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-5	5
12	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Sp Braga	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-5	3
15	Setubal	4	0	2	2	-5	2
16	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Gil Vicente	4	0	0	4	-7	0
19	Aves	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.