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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Famalicao

S S U S

4–2

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Famalicao Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

2,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

25%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

2,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 9

0 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Famalicao 2. · Pacos Ferreira 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	0	1	+12	12
2	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+9	9
4	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Sp Lisbon	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Tondela	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Gil Vicente	5	1	3	1	-2	6
10	Setubal	5	1	3	1	-3	6
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	-3	6
12	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sp Braga	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Guimaraes	4	0	3	1	-3	3
17	Aves	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Gil Vicente	4	1	3	0	+1	6
4	Setubal	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+3	3
9	Aves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Tondela	3	1	2	0	+1	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Sp Braga	4	0	1	3	-3	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-5	1
18	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Aves	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.