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Primeira Liga

Referee: Cláudio Pereira

Belenenses

U T S T T

3–2

Full-time

Aves

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/8 matches

Win Ø 14%

14%

13%

Points per game

0,7

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

29%

75%

Both score Ø 52%

29%

75%

Average goals

1,9

3,6

Scored

0,6

1,1

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 17. · Aves 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	0	1	+16	21
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+14	21
3	Famalicao	7	6	1	0	+9	19
4	Tondela	9	3	4	2	+1	13
5	Guimaraes	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+3	11
7	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Boavista	7	2	5	0	+2	11
9	Santa Clara	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Sp Braga	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Setubal	7	1	4	2	-4	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	4	2	-4	7
15	Gil Vicente	8	1	4	3	-5	7
16	Portimonense	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Belenenses	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	2	5	-9	5
19	Aves	8	1	0	7	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Famalicao	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Guimaraes	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Gil Vicente	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Boavista	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	+1	4
12	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	-2	4
15	Aves	4	1	0	3	-1	3
16	Sp Lisbon	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Portimonense	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tondela	6	3	3	0	+4	12
2	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Sp Lisbon	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Portimonense	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Sp Braga	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
15	Setubal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-6	0
19	Aves	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.