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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Porto

S S S S S

6–1

Full-time

Moreirense

U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,3

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 54%

79%

29%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

56%

32%

Both score Ø 50%

38%

62%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

62% Possession 38%

14 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 1. · Moreirense 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	34	27	4	3	+56	85
2	Benfica	34	23	6	5	+41	75
3	Sp Lisbon	33	19	5	9	+18	62
4	Sp Braga	35	18	6	11	+21	60
5	Famalicao	35	16	11	8	+6	59
6	Rio Ave	35	16	10	9	+12	58
7	Guimaraes	35	14	11	10	+17	53
8	Gil Vicente	35	12	10	13	-3	46
9	Moreirense	34	10	15	9	+4	45
10	Santa Clara	35	11	11	13	-5	44
11	Boavista	35	11	9	15	-8	42
12	Pacos Ferreira	35	12	5	18	-16	41
13	Maritimo	35	9	13	13	-8	40
14	Belenenses	34	9	8	17	-26	35
15	Tondela	35	8	10	17	-18	34
16	Portimonense	35	6	14	15	-17	32
17	Setubal	32	6	12	14	-18	30
18	Vitoria Setubal	32	6	12	14	-18	30
19	Aves	34	6	2	26	-38	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	15	1	1	+36	46
2	Benfica	17	12	2	3	+25	38
3	Sp Lisbon	16	12	0	4	+12	36
4	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+13	34
5	Guimaraes	18	9	4	5	+14	31
6	Famalicao	18	8	6	4	+5	30
7	Gil Vicente	17	7	7	3	+5	28
8	Rio Ave	18	7	6	5	+5	27
9	Moreirense	17	6	7	4	+4	25
10	Maritimo	17	5	8	4	+3	23
11	Boavista	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Santa Clara	17	6	4	7	-3	22
13	Portimonense	17	4	8	5	-2	20
14	Pacos Ferreira	18	6	2	10	-8	20
15	Belenenses	18	5	4	9	-13	19
16	Setubal	16	3	7	6	-7	16
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	7	6	-7	16
18	Aves	17	5	1	11	-9	16
19	Tondela	18	3	5	10	-13	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	12	3	2	+20	39
2	Benfica	17	11	4	2	+16	37
3	Rio Ave	17	9	4	4	+7	31
4	Famalicao	17	8	5	4	+1	29
5	Sp Braga	18	8	2	8	+8	26
6	Sp Lisbon	17	7	5	5	+6	26
7	Guimaraes	17	5	7	5	+3	22
8	Santa Clara	18	5	7	6	-2	22
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	6	3	8	-8	21
10	Moreirense	17	4	8	5	+0	20
11	Tondela	17	5	5	7	-5	20
12	Boavista	18	5	5	8	-9	20
13	Gil Vicente	18	5	3	10	-8	18
14	Maritimo	18	4	5	9	-11	17
15	Belenenses	16	4	4	8	-13	16
16	Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Portimonense	18	2	6	10	-15	12
19	Aves	17	1	1	15	-29	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.