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Primeira Liga
Referee: Artur Soares Dias
Tondela
T U T T T
1–0
Full-time
Sp Braga
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,0
4,0
Scored
0,8
2,7
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 34/34 matches
Win Ø 37%
21%
53%
Points per game
0,9
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
38%
56%
Both score Ø 49%
41%
56%
Average goals
2,1
3,0
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

27% Possession 73%
8 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 5
22 Free kicks against 18
5 Yellow cards 0
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Tondela 16. · Sp Braga 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 34 27 4 3 +56 85
2 Benfica 34 23 6 5 +41 75
3 Sp Lisbon 33 19 5 9 +18 62
4 Sp Braga 34 18 6 10 +22 60
5 Famalicao 35 16 11 8 +6 59
6 Rio Ave 35 16 10 9 +12 58
7 Guimaraes 35 14 11 10 +17 53
8 Gil Vicente 35 12 10 13 -3 46
9 Moreirense 34 10 15 9 +4 45
10 Santa Clara 35 11 11 13 -5 44
11 Boavista 35 11 9 15 -8 42
12 Pacos Ferreira 35 12 5 18 -16 41
13 Maritimo 35 9 13 13 -8 40
14 Belenenses 34 9 8 17 -26 35
15 Portimonense 35 6 14 15 -17 32
16 Tondela 34 7 10 17 -19 31
17 Setubal 32 6 12 14 -18 30
18 Vitoria Setubal 32 6 12 14 -18 30
19 Aves 34 6 2 26 -38 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tondela Sp Braga
P. Sampaio 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–0
João Pedro 🔁
↦ Telmo Arcanjo
46′
Richard Rodrigues 🔁
↦ J. Toro
46′
F. Ferreira 🟨
56′
57′
🔁 Fransérgio
↦ André Horta
T. Almeida 🟨
64′
Ricardo Valente 🔁
↦ J. Murillo
67′
67′
🔁 Abel Ruiz
↦ Rui Fonte
1–0 Yohan Tavares
74′
79′
🔁 Leandro Sanca
↦ Pedro Amador
79′
🔁 João Novais
↦ João Palhinha
B. Mbaye 🟨
84′
F. Ferreira 🟨
87′
F. Ferreira 🟥
87′
M. Petković 🔁
↦ Jaquité
93′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Tondela

4-4-2
99 B. Niasse G
23 Yohan Tavares D
30 Filipe Ferreira D
94 Philipe Sampaio D
19 Tiago Almeida D
14 Pepelu M
70 J. Toro M
5 Jaquité M
80 Telmo Arcanjo F
15 J. Murillo M
9 Ronan F
Bench (9)
8 João Pedro
77 Richard Rodrigues
33 Ricardo Valente
2 M. Petković
29 Rúben Fonseca
4 Jota Gonçalves
13 Diogo Silva
7 António Xavier
28 T. Štrkalj

Coach: Natxo González

Sp Braga

4-4-2
1 Matheus Magalhães G
47 Ricardo Esgaio D
4 Bruno Wilson D
81 Pedro Amador D
92 David Carmo D
60 João Palhinha M
15 André Horta M
18 Rui Fonte F
20 Paulinho F
21 Ricardo Horta M
77 Trincão M
Bench (9)
27 Fransérgio
9 Abel Ruiz
89 Leandro Sanca
17 João Novais
90 Galeno
70 Fabiano
85 Samuel Costa
82 Eduardo
36 Bruno Viana

Coach: Artur Jorge

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,18
U
4,07
B
1,60
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,67
U2,5 ✓
2,19
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Artur Soares Dias · 181 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.