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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Porto

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Benfica

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 77%

77%

Points per game

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

77%

62%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

3,9

3,2

Scored

2,7

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 26

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+22	36
2	Porto	13	10	1	2	+19	31
3	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+15	31
4	Sp Braga	13	9	0	4	+10	27
5	Pacos Ferreira	13	6	4	3	+5	22
6	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	+3	20
7	Santa Clara	13	4	3	6	-4	15
8	Rio Ave	14	3	6	5	-6	15
9	Maritimo	13	4	2	7	-3	14
10	Moreirense	13	3	5	5	-5	14
11	Nacional	12	3	4	5	-4	13
12	Gil Vicente	13	3	4	6	-5	13
13	Farense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
14	Belenenses	13	2	6	5	-5	12
15	Tondela	13	3	3	7	-12	12
16	Boavista	13	1	8	4	-8	11
17	Portimonense	13	3	2	8	-8	11
18	Famalicao	13	2	5	6	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+8	18
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Sp Braga	6	5	0	1	+6	15
5	Pacos Ferreira	6	4	1	1	+4	13
6	Moreirense	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Farense	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Tondela	7	3	2	2	-2	11
9	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-1	9
10	Rio Ave	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Maritimo	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Famalicao	7	1	3	3	-7	6
17	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Guimaraes	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Porto	6	4	1	1	+9	13
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	Sp Braga	7	4	0	3	+4	12
6	Santa Clara	7	3	1	3	+0	10
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-6	7
9	Boavista	7	0	6	1	-2	6
10	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-2	6
11	Maritimo	7	2	0	5	-3	6
12	Famalicao	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Gil Vicente	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Portimonense	7	1	0	6	-8	3
16	Moreirense	6	0	2	4	-8	2
17	Farense	6	0	1	5	-7	1
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.