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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Porto

S T S S S

2–0

Full-time

Nacional

U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

67%

22%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

78%

44%

Both score Ø 62%

67%

56%

Average goals

4,0

2,2

Scored

2,6

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Nacional 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+17	26
2	Benfica	10	8	0	2	+12	24
3	Porto	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	Sp Braga	9	6	0	3	+5	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	1	3	+0	16
6	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Santa Clara	9	4	1	4	+1	13
8	Belenenses	10	2	5	3	-2	11
9	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-2	11
10	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-5	11
11	Nacional	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Moreirense	10	2	4	4	-3	10
13	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Gil Vicente	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Boavista	10	1	6	3	-5	9
16	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-9	9
17	Farense	10	2	2	6	-4	8
18	Portimonense	10	2	2	6	-6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	Pacos Ferreira	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Tondela	6	2	2	2	-3	8
8	Farense	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Famalicao	5	1	3	1	-3	6
14	Guimaraes	5	2	0	3	-4	6
15	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	-1	5
16	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Guimaraes	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Santa Clara	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-1	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Boavista	6	0	5	1	-2	5
10	Famalicao	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-4	3
14	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Farense	5	0	1	4	-5	1
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.