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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Porto

S S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

1,5

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 50%

73%

27%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

73%

18%

Both score Ø 50%

64%

36%

Average goals

3,9

1,6

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Moreirense 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+20	32
2	Benfica	11	9	0	2	+13	27
3	Porto	11	8	1	2	+13	25
4	Sp Braga	12	8	0	4	+9	24
5	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	4	3	+3	19
6	Guimaraes	11	6	1	4	+3	19
7	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-2	14
8	Nacional	11	3	4	4	-2	13
9	Moreirense	11	3	4	4	-2	13
10	Santa Clara	11	4	1	6	-4	13
11	Gil Vicente	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Tondela	12	3	3	6	-10	12
13	Belenenses	11	2	5	4	-3	11
14	Famalicao	12	2	5	5	-7	11
15	Rio Ave	12	2	5	5	-9	11
16	Boavista	12	1	7	4	-8	10
17	Farense	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Portimonense	11	2	2	7	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+7	15
3	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	15
4	Pacos Ferreira	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	Sp Braga	5	4	0	1	+5	12
6	Moreirense	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Tondela	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Farense	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Maritimo	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Famalicao	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-5	6
15	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Guimaraes	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	12
4	Sp Braga	7	4	0	3	+4	12
5	Porto	5	3	1	1	+6	10
6	Santa Clara	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
8	Maritimo	6	2	0	4	-2	6
9	Boavista	7	0	6	1	-2	6
10	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-6	6
11	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Famalicao	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-5	3
16	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Farense	5	0	1	4	-5	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.