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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Belenenses

T T S T U

1–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,2

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 37%

18%

56%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 28%

18%

38%

Both score Ø 25%

24%

25%

Average goals

1,3

2,1

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 12. · Guimaraes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	3	0	+27	45
2	Porto	18	12	4	2	+22	40
3	Benfica	18	11	4	3	+16	37
4	Sp Braga	18	12	1	5	+14	37
5	Pacos Ferreira	17	10	4	3	+12	34
6	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+7	30
7	Santa Clara	18	7	4	7	-1	25
8	Moreirense	18	6	6	6	-5	24
9	Nacional	17	4	6	7	-6	18
10	Tondela	17	5	3	9	-11	18
11	Maritimo	18	5	2	11	-9	17
12	Belenenses	17	3	7	7	-6	16
13	Gil Vicente	17	4	4	9	-7	16
14	Rio Ave	17	3	7	7	-9	16
15	Portimonense	17	4	3	10	-9	15
16	Boavista	17	2	8	7	-12	14
17	Famalicao	18	3	5	10	-15	14
18	Farense	17	3	4	10	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+10	23
2	Porto	9	7	1	1	+12	22
3	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+8	22
4	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+11	20
5	Pacos Ferreira	8	6	1	1	+7	19
6	Tondela	9	5	2	2	+2	17
7	Moreirense	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	Farense	10	3	3	4	+1	12
9	Nacional	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	Guimaraes	8	4	0	4	-2	12
11	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Belenenses	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	-2	8
15	Santa Clara	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Famalicao	9	1	3	5	-10	6
18	Boavista	8	1	2	5	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+16	25
2	Porto	9	5	3	1	+10	18
3	Guimaraes	8	5	3	0	+9	18
4	Santa Clara	10	5	2	3	+2	17
5	Sp Braga	9	5	0	4	+6	15
6	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Boavista	9	1	6	2	-3	9
10	Maritimo	9	3	0	6	-3	9
11	Famalicao	9	2	2	5	-5	8
12	Gil Vicente	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-8	7
14	Nacional	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Belenenses	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Portimonense	9	1	1	7	-9	4
17	Farense	7	0	1	6	-9	1
18	Tondela	8	0	1	7	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.