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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Silva

Tondela

S T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 20%

27%

13%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

73%

53%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Moreirense 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	2	0	+32	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	14	2	0	+23	44
3	Benfica	16	12	1	3	+32	37
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+14	31
5	Estoril	16	6	7	3	+5	25
6	Portimonense	16	7	3	6	+1	24
7	Gil Vicente	16	6	5	5	+5	23
8	Guimaraes	16	6	5	5	+5	23
9	Maritimo	16	4	5	7	-6	17
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-7	17
11	Boavista	16	3	7	6	-8	16
12	Vizela	16	3	7	6	-11	16
13	Arouca	16	3	5	8	-15	14
14	Santa Clara	16	3	4	9	-18	13
15	Moreirense	15	2	6	7	-9	12
16	Tondela	15	4	0	11	-13	12
17	Famalicao	15	2	5	8	-11	11
18	Belenenses	15	1	5	9	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Porto	8	8	0	0	+18	24
3	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Benfica	7	5	0	2	+13	15
5	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Boavista	8	3	4	1	+3	13
7	Maritimo	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	-7	11
9	Vizela	8	2	4	2	-2	10
10	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-8	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Tondela	8	3	0	5	-4	9
14	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	+0	8
15	Estoril	7	1	5	1	+0	8
16	Portimonense	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Belenenses	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Famalicao	7	0	3	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+19	22
2	Porto	8	6	2	0	+14	20
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+10	19
4	Estoril	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Portimonense	8	5	1	2	+5	16
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Famalicao	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	-4	8
11	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-9	6
12	Maritimo	8	1	2	5	-10	5
13	Arouca	8	0	4	4	-7	4
14	Moreirense	7	0	3	4	-8	3
15	Tondela	7	1	0	6	-9	3
16	Belenenses	8	0	3	5	-9	3
17	Boavista	8	0	3	5	-11	3
18	Santa Clara	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.