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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Melo

Guimaraes

S T S T S

5–2

Full-time

Tondela

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 36%

38%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

62%

75%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

58%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

51% Possession 49%

18 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

0 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Guimaraes 8. · Tondela 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+17	35
3	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+25	31
4	Sp Braga	13	7	4	2	+8	25
5	Estoril	13	5	6	2	+5	21
6	Gil Vicente	14	5	5	4	+5	20
7	Portimonense	13	6	2	5	+1	20
8	Guimaraes	13	5	4	4	+3	19
9	Maritimo	14	3	5	6	-2	14
10	Arouca	13	3	4	6	-6	13
11	Tondela	12	4	0	8	-6	12
12	Boavista	13	2	6	5	-7	12
13	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	5	7	-9	11
14	Famalicao	13	2	4	7	-8	10
15	Vizela	12	1	7	4	-10	10
16	Santa Clara	14	2	4	8	-18	10
17	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-8	9
18	Belenenses	12	1	5	6	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	18
3	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+7	12
5	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Boavista	7	2	4	1	+2	10
7	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Maritimo	7	2	3	2	+2	9
9	Tondela	6	3	0	3	+0	9
10	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	+3	8
11	Santa Clara	7	2	2	3	-8	8
12	Estoril	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
14	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-9	5
18	Famalicao	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+7	16
4	Estoril	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Portimonense	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Famalicao	7	2	1	4	-3	7
10	Maritimo	7	1	2	4	-4	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Tondela	6	1	0	5	-6	3
13	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
14	Arouca	7	0	3	4	-7	3
15	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3
16	Vizela	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Boavista	6	0	2	4	-9	2
18	Santa Clara	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.