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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Guimaraes

U T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

30%

10%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

40%

70%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 7. · Moreirense 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+11	26
3	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+15	25
4	Estoril	11	5	5	1	+7	20
5	Sp Braga	10	5	4	1	+8	19
6	Portimonense	11	5	2	4	+1	17
7	Guimaraes	10	3	4	3	+2	13
8	Gil Vicente	11	3	4	4	+0	13
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	5	3	-3	11
10	Boavista	11	2	5	4	-6	11
11	Famalicao	11	2	4	5	-1	10
12	Arouca	11	2	4	5	-6	10
13	Vizela	11	1	7	3	-7	10
14	Tondela	10	3	0	7	-6	9
15	Moreirense	10	1	5	4	-7	8
16	Belenenses	11	1	5	5	-8	8
17	Maritimo	10	1	4	5	-5	7
18	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Porto	5	5	0	0	+14	15
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Boavista	6	2	3	1	+2	9
5	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+4	8
6	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Arouca	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
9	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Estoril	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Tondela	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-1	5
15	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-6	5
17	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Maritimo	5	0	3	2	-3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Estoril	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Porto	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Sp Braga	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	10
6	Portimonense	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Famalicao	6	2	1	3	+1	7
9	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	-3	5
11	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-2	4
12	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-4	3
13	Arouca	6	0	3	3	-6	3
14	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-6	3
15	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
16	Vizela	5	0	3	2	-7	3
17	Boavista	5	0	2	3	-8	2
18	Santa Clara	5	0	1	4	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.