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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Tondela

T S S T T

4–2

Full-time

Maritimo

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

30%

10%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

80%

50%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

3,2

2,1

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 20

7 Shots on target 11

3 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 6

22 Free kicks against 24

3 Yellow cards 8

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Tondela 14. · Maritimo 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+11	26
3	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+15	25
4	Estoril	11	5	5	1	+7	20
5	Sp Braga	10	5	4	1	+8	19
6	Portimonense	11	5	2	4	+1	17
7	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+3	16
8	Gil Vicente	11	3	4	4	+0	13
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	5	3	-3	11
10	Boavista	11	2	5	4	-6	11
11	Famalicao	11	2	4	5	-1	10
12	Arouca	11	2	4	5	-6	10
13	Vizela	11	1	7	3	-7	10
14	Tondela	10	3	0	7	-6	9
15	Moreirense	11	1	5	5	-8	8
16	Belenenses	11	1	5	5	-8	8
17	Maritimo	10	1	4	5	-5	7
18	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Porto	5	5	0	0	+14	15
3	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+3	10
4	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Boavista	6	2	3	1	+2	9
6	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Arouca	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
9	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Estoril	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Tondela	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-1	5
15	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-6	5
17	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Maritimo	5	0	3	2	-3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Estoril	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Porto	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Sp Braga	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	10
6	Portimonense	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Famalicao	6	2	1	3	+1	7
9	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	-3	5
11	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-2	4
12	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-4	3
13	Arouca	6	0	3	3	-6	3
14	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
15	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3
16	Vizela	5	0	3	2	-7	3
17	Boavista	5	0	2	3	-8	2
18	Santa Clara	5	0	1	4	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.