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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Aston Villa

S S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Brighton

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 42%

56%

28%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

52%

68%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,72 xG 0,50

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 3. · Brighton 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	25	17	5	3	+32	+27.4	56
2	Man City	25	15	5	5	+27	+18.3	50
3	Aston Villa	25	14	5	6	+9	-4.6	47
4	Man United	26	12	9	5	+10	+13.3	45
5	Chelsea	26	12	8	6	+17	+13.8	44
6	Liverpool	25	11	6	8	+5	+10.3	39
7	Brentford	25	12	3	10	+5	+4.6	39
8	Everton	26	10	7	9	-1	-7.4	37
9	Bournemouth	26	9	10	7	-2	+3.1	37
10	Newcastle	26	10	6	10	+0	+8.8	36
11	Sunderland	25	9	9	7	-2	-12.8	36
12	Fulham	25	10	4	11	-2	-6.4	34
13	Crystal Palace	25	8	8	9	-3	+6.2	32
14	Brighton	25	7	10	8	+1	+2.7	31
15	Leeds	26	7	9	10	-9	-1.8	30
16	Tottenham	26	7	8	11	-1	-9.9	29
17	Nott'm Forest	25	7	5	13	-13	-10.2	26
18	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-17	-14.3	24
19	Burnley	25	3	6	16	-24	-28.0	15
20	Wolves	25	1	5	19	-32	-13.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.8	32
2	Man City	12	9	2	1	+21	+12.5	29
3	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	+12.1	27
4	Sunderland	12	7	5	0	+12	-1.5	26
5	Aston Villa	12	8	1	3	+8	+2.5	25
6	Brentford	12	7	3	2	+11	+7.2	24
7	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+7	+9.3	24
8	Fulham	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.3	23
9	Bournemouth	13	6	5	2	+6	+9.8	23
10	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+4	+9.4	23
11	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+7	+7.7	22
12	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+4	+6.8	22
13	Brighton	13	5	6	2	+6	+3.6	21
14	Everton	13	4	4	5	-2	-1.0	16
15	Crystal Palace	12	2	6	4	-4	+6.7	12
16	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-5	-0.9	12
17	West Ham	13	3	2	8	-10	-4.4	11
18	Tottenham	13	2	4	7	-2	-2.4	10
19	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-7	-10.6	10
20	Wolves	13	1	2	10	-17	-5.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	7	3	2	+9	+11.6	24
2	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+10	+6.0	22
3	Aston Villa	13	6	4	3	+1	-7.1	22
4	Man City	13	6	3	4	+6	+5.8	21
5	Everton	13	6	3	4	+1	-6.5	21
6	Crystal Palace	13	6	2	5	+1	-0.5	20
7	Tottenham	13	5	4	4	+1	-7.5	19
8	Man United	13	4	6	3	+0	+1.3	18
9	Liverpool	12	4	3	5	-2	+0.9	15
10	Brentford	13	5	0	8	-6	-2.6	15
11	Bournemouth	13	3	5	5	-8	-6.6	14
12	Nott'm Forest	13	4	2	7	-8	-9.3	14
13	Newcastle	13	3	4	6	-4	-0.6	13
14	West Ham	13	3	4	6	-7	-9.9	13
15	Fulham	12	3	2	7	-8	-5.1	11
16	Brighton	12	2	4	6	-5	-0.9	10
17	Sunderland	13	2	4	7	-14	-11.3	10
18	Leeds	13	1	5	7	-13	-8.6	8
19	Burnley	12	1	2	9	-17	-17.4	5
20	Wolves	12	0	3	9	-15	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.