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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Aston Villa

T S T S T

6–1

Full-time

Brighton

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,7

4,3

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,58 xG 1,71

38% Possession 62%

19 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 3

0 Offside 6

19 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Brighton 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	+9.3	18
2	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+10	+6.2	16
3	Brighton	6	5	0	1	+10	+2.4	15
4	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+8	+1.9	14
5	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+5	+5.9	14
6	Aston Villa	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.7	12
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+1	-4.3	10
8	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	+9	+5.8	9
9	Man United	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.4	9
10	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.2	8
11	Fulham	6	2	2	2	-5	-8.0	8
12	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-2	-2.1	7
13	Brentford	6	1	3	2	+0	+3.6	6
14	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+5.2	5
15	Everton	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
16	Wolves	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.6	4
17	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-5.2	3
18	Luton	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.2	1
19	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-9	-4.7	1
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-12	-11.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.5	9
2	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.9	9
3	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.6	9
4	Arsenal	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.2	8
5	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.4	6
6	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.7	6
7	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.7	6
9	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.7	4
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
12	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.4	3
13	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.1	3
14	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-3.6	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.9	2
16	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.0	1
17	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-10	-8.7	1
18	Everton	3	0	0	3	-3	+0.8	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.0	0
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	+7.4	9
2	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	+0.8	8
3	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
4	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
5	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.8	6
6	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
7	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.7	6
8	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
9	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.8	4
11	Everton	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.1	4
12	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+5	+2.1	3
13	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
14	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.1	3
15	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.1	3
16	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
17	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.5	1
18	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.3	1
19	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
20	Luton	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.