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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Newcastle

S U T U S

0–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 50%

41%

59%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

59%

Both score Ø 57%

59%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,18 xG 1,16

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 8

7 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 9. · Aston Villa 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	22	15	5	2	+26	+23.6	50
2	Man City	23	14	4	5	+26	+15.7	46
3	Aston Villa	22	13	4	5	+8	-4.0	43
4	Liverpool	23	10	6	7	+3	+9.9	36
5	Man United	22	9	8	5	+6	+13.2	35
6	Chelsea	22	9	7	6	+12	+7.7	34
7	Fulham	23	10	4	9	+0	-6.6	34
8	Brentford	22	10	3	9	+5	+6.0	33
9	Newcastle	22	9	6	7	+5	+8.6	33
10	Sunderland	23	8	9	6	-2	-12.6	33
11	Everton	22	9	5	8	-1	-8.0	32
12	Brighton	23	7	9	7	+2	+2.8	30
13	Bournemouth	23	7	9	7	-5	+3.1	30
14	Tottenham	23	7	7	9	+2	-6.9	28
15	Crystal Palace	22	7	7	8	-2	+4.8	28
16	Leeds	22	6	7	9	-7	+0.1	25
17	Nott'm Forest	22	6	4	12	-13	-6.6	22
18	West Ham	23	5	5	13	-18	-13.0	20
19	Burnley	23	3	6	14	-19	-27.2	15
20	Wolves	23	1	5	17	-28	-10.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+21	+12.5	29
2	Arsenal	11	9	2	0	+21	+14.0	29
3	Aston Villa	11	8	1	2	+9	+0.5	25
4	Brentford	11	7	3	1	+13	+6.2	24
5	Sunderland	11	6	5	0	+9	-2.6	23
6	Newcastle	11	7	2	2	+7	+7.9	23
7	Fulham	12	7	2	3	+7	-1.4	23
8	Bournemouth	12	6	4	2	+6	+8.2	22
9	Man United	11	6	3	2	+7	+10.9	21
10	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+5	+8.9	21
11	Brighton	11	5	5	1	+7	+3.8	20
12	Leeds	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.7	19
13	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+6	+4.5	18
14	Everton	11	4	3	4	-1	-1.9	15
15	Crystal Palace	11	2	6	3	-2	+7.1	12
16	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-5	+0.5	11
17	Burnley	12	2	4	6	-5	-11.0	10
18	West Ham	12	3	1	8	-10	-4.9	10
19	Tottenham	11	2	3	6	-1	-0.7	9
20	Wolves	11	1	2	8	-13	-3.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	6	3	2	+5	+9.6	21
2	Tottenham	12	5	4	3	+3	-6.2	19
3	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	-1	-4.5	18
4	Man City	11	5	2	4	+5	+3.2	17
5	Everton	11	5	2	4	+0	-6.1	17
6	Chelsea	11	4	4	3	+6	+3.2	16
7	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+0	-2.3	16
8	Liverpool	12	4	3	5	-2	+0.9	15
9	Man United	11	3	5	3	-1	+2.3	14
10	Fulham	11	3	2	6	-7	-5.3	11
11	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-8	-7.1	11
12	Newcastle	11	2	4	5	-2	+0.7	10
13	Brighton	12	2	4	6	-5	-0.9	10
14	West Ham	11	2	4	5	-8	-8.0	10
15	Sunderland	12	2	4	6	-11	-10.0	10
16	Brentford	11	3	0	8	-8	-0.1	9
17	Bournemouth	11	1	5	5	-11	-5.0	8
18	Leeds	11	1	3	7	-13	-7.5	6
19	Burnley	11	1	2	8	-14	-16.2	5
20	Wolves	12	0	3	9	-15	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.