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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Benfica

S U S S U

2–1

Full-time

Estoril

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 50%

69%

31%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

65%

42%

Both score Ø 58%

65%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

18 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Estoril 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	26	22	4	0	+48	70
2	Sp Lisbon	27	21	4	2	+37	67
3	Benfica	26	18	4	4	+42	58
4	Sp Braga	26	13	7	6	+16	46
5	Gil Vicente	27	12	10	5	+12	46
6	Guimaraes	27	10	6	11	+0	36
7	Estoril	26	8	10	8	+0	34
8	Maritimo	27	8	9	10	-3	33
9	Pacos Ferreira	27	8	9	10	-7	33
10	Santa Clara	27	7	10	10	-13	31
11	Portimonense	26	7	8	11	-5	29
12	Famalicao	27	6	10	11	-8	28
13	Boavista	26	4	15	7	-8	27
14	Vizela	27	5	11	11	-16	26
15	Arouca	27	5	8	14	-23	23
16	Tondela	27	6	4	17	-21	22
17	Moreirense	27	4	8	15	-20	20
18	Belenenses	27	3	9	15	-31	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
3	Benfica	13	8	2	3	+18	26
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+11	25
5	Guimaraes	13	7	2	4	+6	23
6	Santa Clara	14	6	5	3	-3	23
7	Gil Vicente	14	5	5	4	+4	20
8	Boavista	13	3	9	1	+3	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	5	5	-3	17
10	Maritimo	13	3	6	4	+2	15
11	Estoril	13	3	6	4	+0	15
12	Famalicao	13	3	6	4	-1	15
13	Vizela	14	3	6	5	-5	15
14	Tondela	14	4	2	8	-7	14
15	Moreirense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
16	Belenenses	13	3	3	7	-16	12
17	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-16	11
18	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+23	35
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+24	32
4	Gil Vicente	13	7	5	1	+8	26
5	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Portimonense	13	5	4	4	+2	19
7	Estoril	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Maritimo	14	5	3	6	-5	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	4	5	-4	16
10	Guimaraes	14	3	4	7	-6	13
11	Famalicao	14	3	4	7	-7	13
12	Arouca	14	2	6	6	-7	12
13	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-11	11
14	Boavista	13	1	6	6	-11	9
15	Santa Clara	13	1	5	7	-10	8
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-14	8
17	Moreirense	14	1	5	8	-16	8
18	Belenenses	14	0	6	8	-15	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.