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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Estoril

S T T T U

2–2

Full-time

Belenenses

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,5

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 22%

27%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

43%

30%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,1

0,6

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

44% Possession 56%

6 Shots 23

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 8

4 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 10

7 Yellow cards 3

3 Red cards 2

The table before the match Estoril 10. · Belenenses 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	30	26	4	0	+60	82
2	Sp Lisbon	30	23	4	3	+39	73
3	Benfica	31	21	5	5	+46	68
4	Sp Braga	30	16	8	6	+19	56
5	Gil Vicente	31	12	12	7	+10	48
6	Guimaraes	30	12	6	12	+4	42
7	Maritimo	31	9	10	12	-3	37
8	Pacos Ferreira	31	9	10	12	-11	37
9	Santa Clara	31	8	12	11	-14	36
10	Estoril	30	8	11	11	-4	35
11	Portimonense	31	9	8	14	-13	35
12	Boavista	30	6	15	9	-11	33
13	Vizela	31	7	11	13	-16	32
14	Famalicao	31	6	12	13	-10	30
15	Arouca	31	6	9	16	-24	27
16	Moreirense	31	6	8	17	-19	26
17	Tondela	30	7	4	19	-23	25
18	Belenenses	30	5	9	16	-30	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+35	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+19	37
3	Benfica	16	10	3	3	+21	33
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Santa Clara	16	7	6	3	-1	27
6	Guimaraes	15	8	2	5	+9	26
7	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+3	21
8	Boavista	15	4	9	2	+3	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Maritimo	15	4	6	5	+4	18
11	Vizela	16	4	6	6	-5	18
12	Belenenses	15	5	3	7	-13	18
13	Estoril	15	3	7	5	-1	16
14	Famalicao	15	3	7	5	-2	16
15	Portimonense	16	4	4	8	-6	16
16	Moreirense	15	4	3	8	-3	15
17	Arouca	15	4	3	8	-15	15
18	Tondela	15	4	2	9	-9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+25	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+20	36
3	Benfica	15	11	2	2	+25	35
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+7	28
5	Gil Vicente	15	7	6	2	+7	27
6	Estoril	15	5	4	6	-3	19
7	Maritimo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
8	Portimonense	15	5	4	6	-7	19
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-10	17
10	Guimaraes	15	4	4	7	-5	16
11	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-8	14
12	Vizela	15	3	5	7	-11	14
13	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
14	Boavista	15	2	6	7	-14	12
15	Tondela	15	3	2	10	-14	11
16	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	6	8	-13	9
18	Belenenses	15	0	6	9	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.