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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Boavista

S S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Chaves

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Boavista Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,7

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

1,2

3,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

2,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,8

4,0

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

3,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

2,12 xG 1,90

50% Possession 50%

7 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 5

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 12

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Boavista 4. · Chaves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.8	13
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+4	+4.7	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.1	12
4	Boavista	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.8	10
5	Guimaraes	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.2	9
6	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.2	8
7	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+1	-1.3	8
8	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.9	7
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	0	3	+4	-2.4	6
10	Farense	5	2	0	3	+2	-0.3	6
11	Arouca	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.0	6
12	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
13	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-7	-3.3	5
14	Vizela	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
15	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.3	4
16	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.7	4
17	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-3	+1.2	3
18	Chaves	4	0	0	4	-10	-4.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+4.8	9
2	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
4	Farense	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
5	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
6	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
7	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
8	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.8	4
9	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.2	4
11	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.5	4
12	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
13	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
14	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
15	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.6	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.8	9
2	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
3	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
5	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.0	6
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
7	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.6	4
8	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
9	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.8	4
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.2	3
11	Arouca	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.2	2
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
13	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
14	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
15	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
16	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.