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Primeira Liga
Referee: João Ferreira
Chaves
S S T T T
2–4
Full-time
Sp Braga
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
0,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,32 xG 0,86
44% Possession 56%
15 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 6
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Chaves 16. · Sp Braga 13.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 2 2 0 0 +2 +1.3 6
2 Guimaraes 2 2 0 0 +2 +0.1 6
3 Gil Vicente 2 1 0 1 +4 +0.8 3
4 Casa Pia 2 1 0 1 +2 +1.4 3
5 Rio Ave 1 1 0 0 +2 +3.0 3
6 Arouca 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.1 3
7 Boavista 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.1 3
8 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.4 3
9 Porto 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.3 3
10 Estoril 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.1 0
11 Benfica 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.1 0
12 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 -1.2 0
13 Sp Braga 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.4 0
14 Moreirense 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.3 0
15 Estrela 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.3 0
16 Chaves 1 0 0 1 -2 -3.0 0
17 Farense 1 0 0 1 -3 -1.5 0
18 Portimonense 1 0 0 1 -5 -0.6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Chaves Sp Braga
2′
🟨 Sikou Niakaté
Pedro Pinho 🟨
3′
16′
Bruma 0–1
Ricardo Horta
1–1 Héctor Hernández
K. Nwakali
43′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 Álvaro Djaló
↦ R. Zalazar
2–1 Héctor Hernández
I. Abass
53′
Guima 🔁
↦ Pedro Pinho
57′
58′
Ricardo Horta 2–2
Abel Ruiz
Leandro Sanca 🔁
↦ I. Abass
61′
H. Sylla 🔁
↦ João Correia
61′
66′
🔁 André Horta
↦ Vitor Carvalho
Leandro Sanca 🟨
67′
João Pedro 🔁
↦ K. Nwakali
69′
77′
🔁 S. Banza
↦ Abel Ruiz
Ygor Nogueira ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
79′
Ygor Nogueira 🟥
80′
81′
S. Banza 2–3
Álvaro Djaló
87′
🔁 Pizzi
↦ Bruma
96′
Pizzi 2–4
101′
🟨 José Fonte
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Chaves

4-4-2
1 Hugo Souza G
77 João Correia D
4 Bruno Rodrigues D
3 Ygor Nogueira D
33 Sandro Cruz D
7 Benny M
18 Pedro Pinho M
28 K. Nwakali M
11 I. Abass M
23 Héctor Hernández F
9 Paulo Victor F
Bench (9)
21 Guima
10 Leandro Sanca
2 H. Sylla
8 João Pedro
87 Rodrigo Melro
44 João Queirós
31 Rodrigo Moura
72 Guilherme Ferreira
19 S. Vitória

Coach: José Gomes

Sp Braga

4-2-3-1
1 Matheus G
2 Víctor Gómez D
6 José Fonte D
4 S. Niakaté D
19 Adrián Marín D
8 Al Musrati M
18 Vitor Carvalho M
21 Ricardo Horta M
16 R. Zalazar M
7 Bruma M
9 Abel Ruiz F
Bench (9)
14 Álvaro Djaló
10 André Horta
23 S. Banza
22 Pizzi
88 Castro
91 L. Horníček
20 Rony Lopes
17 J. Mendes
5 S. Saatçı

Coach: Artur Jorge

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,79
U
3,99
B ✓
1,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,74
U2,5
2,07
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

João Ferreira · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.