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Primeira Liga
Referee: Gustavo Correia
Arouca
U U U T T
0–1
Full-time
Guimaraes
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
1,0
2,3
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,21 xG 0,83
64% Possession 36%
8 Shots 11
0 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 11
7 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Santa Clara 1 1 0 0 +3 +2.6 3
2 Porto 1 1 0 0 +3 +3.4 3
3 Sp Lisbon 1 1 0 0 +2 +2.5 3
4 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +2 +0.7 3
5 Moreirense 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.8 3
6 Boavista 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.2 3
7 Sp Braga 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.7 1
8 Estrela 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.7 1
9 AVS 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.5 1
10 Nacional 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.5 1
11 Farense 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.8 0
12 Casa Pia 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.2 0
13 Rio Ave 1 0 0 1 -2 -2.5 0
14 Benfica 1 0 0 1 -2 -0.7 0
15 Estoril 1 0 0 1 -3 -2.6 0
16 Gil Vicente 1 0 0 1 -3 -3.4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. May -24 Arouca – Guimaraes 1–3 15. Jan -24 Guimaraes – Arouca 2–1 11. Mar -23 Guimaraes – Arouca 0–2 18. Sep -22 Arouca – Guimaraes 2–2 19. Feb -22 Guimaraes – Arouca 1–3

Match report

Arouca Guimaraes
14′
⚽ Nélson Oliveira 0–1
Kaio César
Weverson 🟨
22′
Alfonso Trezza 🟨
43′
Half-time 0–1
Matías Rocha 🟨
47′
48′
🟨 Bruno Gaspar
David Simão 🟨
62′
68′
🔁 Manu
↦ Tomás Händel
68′
🔁 Nuno Santos
↦ Samu
68′
🔁 J. Ramírez
↦ Nélson Oliveira
Pablo Gozálbez 🔁
↦ David Simão
70′
Henrique Araújo 🔁
↦ A. Trezza
70′
Henrique Araújo 🟨
75′
Jason 🟨
76′
76′
🟨 Tiago Silva
Quaresma 🔁
↦ Weverson
77′
79′
🔁 Zé Carlos
↦ Tiago Silva
Matías Rocha 🟨
81′
Matías Rocha 🟥
81′
85′
🔁 Telmo Arcanjo
↦ Kaio César
Alex Pinto 🔁
↦ Jason
88′
V. Morozov 🔁
↦ T. Fukui
89′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Arouca

4-2-3-1
58 N. Mantl G
28 Tiago Esgaio D
4 M. Rocha D
3 José Fontán D
26 Weverson D
21 T. Fukui M
5 David Simão M
10 Jason M
89 Pedro Santos M
2 M. Sylla M
19 A. Trezza F
Bench (9)
22 Pablo Gozálbez
39 Henrique Araújo
6 Quaresma
78 Alex Pinto
9 V. Morozov
73 Chico Lamba
12 Thiago Rodrigues
44 N. Galović
14 Oriol Busquets

Coach: Gonzalo García

Guimaraes

4-2-3-1
14 Bruno Varela G
76 Bruno Gaspar D
44 Jorge Fernandes D
24 T. Borevković D
13 João Teixeira Mendes D
10 Tiago Silva M
8 Tomás Händel M
11 Kaio César M
20 Samu M
19 Ricardo Mangas M
7 Nélson Oliveira F
Bench (9)
6 Manu
77 Nuno Santos
9 J. Ramírez
28 Zé Carlos
18 Telmo Arcanjo
3 M. Villanueva
27 Charles
5 Marco Cruz
22 Alberto Costa

Coach: Rui Borges

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,85
🔒
U
3,40
🔒
B ✓
2,42
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,89
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,91
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Gustavo Correia · 112 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
29,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,40 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.