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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Guimaraes

S S U S S

0–2

Full-time

Arouca

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

52%

39%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

43%

39%

Both score Ø 37%

35%

39%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

25 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 0

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Arouca 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	23	20	2	1	+45	62
2	Porto	24	18	3	3	+38	57
3	Sp Braga	23	17	1	5	+28	52
4	Sp Lisbon	23	15	2	6	+23	47
5	Guimaraes	23	12	4	7	+2	40
6	Casa Pia	23	10	5	8	-3	35
7	Arouca	23	9	7	7	-5	34
8	Boavista	23	8	6	9	-8	30
9	Vizela	23	8	5	10	+3	29
10	Gil Vicente	23	8	5	10	-4	29
11	Chaves	24	7	8	9	-7	29
12	Rio Ave	23	7	6	10	-6	27
13	Famalicao	23	8	3	12	-9	27
14	Portimonense	24	8	2	14	-13	26
15	Estoril	24	6	4	14	-16	22
16	Maritimo	23	4	4	15	-25	16
17	Santa Clara	24	3	6	15	-19	15
18	Pacos Ferreira	24	4	3	17	-24	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	1	0	+28	34
2	Porto	12	10	0	2	+26	30
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	0	2	+22	27
4	Guimaraes	12	8	2	2	+6	26
5	Sp Braga	11	8	1	2	+17	25
6	Arouca	12	7	1	4	+3	22
7	Boavista	12	5	5	2	+0	20
8	Rio Ave	11	6	1	4	+4	19
9	Famalicao	11	6	1	4	+3	19
10	Casa Pia	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Portimonense	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Gil Vicente	12	4	4	4	+0	16
13	Vizela	11	4	2	5	+3	14
14	Chaves	12	3	5	4	-1	14
15	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-3	11
16	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-9	11
17	Santa Clara	12	2	4	6	-10	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	2	9	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+17	28
2	Porto	12	8	3	1	+12	27
3	Sp Braga	12	9	0	3	+11	27
4	Sp Lisbon	12	6	2	4	+1	20
5	Casa Pia	11	5	2	4	-4	17
6	Vizela	12	4	3	5	+0	15
7	Chaves	12	4	3	5	-6	15
8	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
9	Gil Vicente	11	4	1	6	-4	13
10	Arouca	11	2	6	3	-8	12
11	Estoril	13	3	2	8	-7	11
12	Boavista	11	3	1	7	-8	10
13	Portimonense	12	3	0	9	-12	9
14	Rio Ave	12	1	5	6	-10	8
15	Famalicao	12	2	2	8	-12	8
16	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	1	8	-10	7
17	Santa Clara	12	1	2	9	-9	5
18	Maritimo	12	1	2	9	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.