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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Vieira

Rio Ave

U U U S U

1–1

Full-time

Arouca

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 31%

17%

45%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

34%

66%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,3

3,1

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,62 xG 1,07

39% Possession 61%

6 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

7 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 11. · Arouca 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	29	25	2	2	+57	+36.6	77
2	Benfica	29	22	4	3	+42	+34.6	70
3	Porto	29	18	5	6	+30	+27.5	59
4	Sp Braga	29	18	5	6	+21	+19.1	59
5	Guimaraes	29	17	6	6	+16	+7.8	57
6	Arouca	29	13	4	12	+11	+0.5	43
7	Moreirense	29	12	7	10	-3	-1.4	43
8	Famalicao	29	8	11	10	-5	-10.1	35
9	Casa Pia	29	8	8	13	-12	-9.8	32
10	Farense	29	8	7	14	-3	-8.6	31
11	Rio Ave	29	5	15	9	-6	+1.9	30
12	Estoril	29	8	5	16	-7	-11.2	29
13	Boavista	29	7	8	14	-21	-17.7	29
14	Gil Vicente	29	7	7	15	-12	-9.9	28
15	Estrela	29	6	10	13	-14	-7.4	28
16	Portimonense	29	7	6	16	-30	-21.5	27
17	Chaves	29	5	7	17	-32	-19.5	22
18	Vizela	29	4	9	16	-32	-10.8	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	14	0	0	+37	+23.7	42
2	Benfica	15	13	2	0	+34	+26.3	41
3	Porto	15	10	3	2	+21	+22.8	33
4	Guimaraes	15	10	2	3	+13	+11.5	32
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+12	+18.1	27
6	Arouca	15	7	2	6	+2	+0.3	23
7	Estoril	15	7	1	7	+7	+0.3	22
8	Moreirense	14	6	4	4	+1	+0.6	22
9	Gil Vicente	15	5	6	4	+4	-4.5	21
10	Rio Ave	14	5	6	3	+4	+7.6	21
11	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-1	-2.3	20
12	Farense	14	5	4	5	+4	+1.5	19
13	Estrela	15	5	3	7	-3	-1.8	18
14	Boavista	14	4	5	5	-9	-3.6	17
15	Portimonense	15	3	5	7	-11	-9.5	14
16	Chaves	14	3	3	8	-12	-4.4	12
17	Casa Pia	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.0	11
18	Vizela	15	2	4	9	-16	-1.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	11	2	2	+20	+12.9	35
2	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+9	+1.0	32
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+8	+8.4	29
4	Porto	14	8	2	4	+9	+4.6	26
5	Guimaraes	14	7	4	3	+3	-3.7	25
6	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	-4	-6.8	21
7	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	-4	-2.0	21
8	Arouca	14	6	2	6	+9	+0.3	20
9	Famalicao	15	3	6	6	-4	-7.9	15
10	Portimonense	14	4	1	9	-19	-12.0	13
11	Farense	15	3	3	9	-7	-10.1	12
12	Boavista	15	3	3	9	-12	-14.1	12
13	Vizela	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.8	11
14	Estrela	14	1	7	6	-11	-5.6	10
15	Chaves	15	2	4	9	-20	-15.1	10
16	Rio Ave	15	0	9	6	-10	-5.7	9
17	Estoril	14	1	4	9	-14	-11.5	7
18	Gil Vicente	14	2	1	11	-16	-5.4	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.