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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Arouca

S S S U U

0–0

Full-time

Estrela

T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 31%

42%

19%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

65%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,75 xG 0,30

71% Possession 29%

21 Shots 7

1 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	32	27	3	2	+63	+42.1	84
2	Benfica	31	24	4	3	+46	+37.1	76
3	Porto	32	20	6	6	+34	+29.8	66
4	Sp Braga	31	19	5	7	+20	+19.5	62
5	Guimaraes	32	18	6	8	+13	+6.7	60
6	Moreirense	32	14	7	11	-1	+0.1	49
7	Arouca	31	13	6	12	+11	+1.9	45
8	Farense	32	10	7	15	-1	-9.3	37
9	Famalicao	31	8	12	11	-6	-10.1	36
10	Rio Ave	32	6	17	9	-5	+0.1	35
11	Casa Pia	31	9	8	14	-11	-11.3	35
12	Estoril	32	9	6	17	-7	-12.7	33
13	Gil Vicente	32	8	9	15	-11	-10.4	33
14	Boavista	32	7	10	15	-22	-17.8	31
15	Estrela	31	6	11	14	-17	-7.5	29
16	Portimonense	32	7	7	18	-35	-25.2	28
17	Chaves	32	5	8	19	-37	-20.3	23
18	Vizela	32	4	10	18	-34	-12.8	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	16	0	0	+43	+28.9	48
2	Benfica	16	14	2	0	+36	+27.7	44
3	Guimaraes	16	11	2	3	+14	+11.3	35
4	Porto	16	10	4	2	+21	+22.5	34
5	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+13	+19.9	30
6	Estoril	16	8	1	7	+8	-0.2	25
7	Rio Ave	16	6	7	3	+5	+6.4	25
8	Moreirense	16	7	4	5	+1	+1.6	25
9	Arouca	15	7	2	6	+2	+0.3	23
10	Gil Vicente	16	5	7	4	+4	-5.4	22
11	Farense	16	6	4	6	+3	+0.9	22
12	Famalicao	15	5	6	4	-1	-2.7	21
13	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-9	-3.9	19
14	Estrela	16	5	3	8	-6	-1.7	18
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-7	-4.4	14
16	Portimonense	16	3	5	8	-13	-10.1	14
17	Chaves	16	3	4	9	-15	-6.1	13
18	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-16	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	+13.2	36
2	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	+7.4	32
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+10	+9.5	32
4	Sp Braga	16	10	2	4	+7	-0.4	32
5	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.6	25
6	Moreirense	16	7	3	6	-2	-1.5	24
7	Arouca	16	6	4	6	+9	+1.6	22
8	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	-4	-6.8	21
9	Farense	16	4	3	9	-4	-10.2	15
10	Famalicao	16	3	6	7	-5	-7.3	15
11	Portimonense	16	4	2	10	-22	-15.1	14
12	Boavista	16	3	3	10	-13	-13.9	12
13	Estrela	15	1	8	6	-11	-5.8	11
14	Gil Vicente	16	3	2	11	-15	-5.0	11
15	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-18	-12.6	11
16	Rio Ave	16	0	10	6	-10	-6.4	10
17	Chaves	16	2	4	10	-22	-14.2	10
18	Estoril	16	1	5	10	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.