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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Nacional

T T U T T

2–0

Full-time

Santa Clara

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Santa Clara

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/9 matches

Win Ø 40%

13%

67%

Points per game

0,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

25%

44%

Both score Ø 35%

25%

44%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

0,5

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,35 xG 1,05

34% Possession 66%

8 Shots 22

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 11

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 17. · Santa Clara 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	10	0	0	+32	+23.9	30
2	Porto	10	9	0	1	+23	+15.8	27
3	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+18	+11.8	22
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+10	+5.6	20
5	Santa Clara	9	6	0	3	+3	+6.9	18
6	Guimaraes	10	5	3	2	+2	+2.2	18
7	Famalicao	10	4	4	2	+3	-3.3	16
8	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	+0	+3.4	14
9	Casa Pia	10	3	3	4	-4	-2.5	12
10	Gil Vicente	10	2	4	4	-4	-4.2	10
11	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.8	9
12	Estoril	10	2	3	5	-8	-11.0	9
13	AVS	10	2	3	5	-10	-5.6	9
14	Rio Ave	10	2	3	5	-12	-7.3	9
15	Arouca	10	2	1	7	-13	-10.6	7
16	Estrela	10	1	3	6	-12	-9.0	6
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-9	-0.8	5
18	Farense	10	1	1	8	-13	-12.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	+14.5	18
2	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+16	+9.0	15
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
4	Santa Clara	5	4	0	1	+2	+5.0	12
5	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.2	10
6	Guimaraes	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.4	10
7	Rio Ave	5	2	3	0	+2	+2.8	9
8	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
9	Moreirense	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.2	8
10	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
11	AVS	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.1	8
12	Casa Pia	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.2	7
13	Estoril	5	2	1	2	-2	-6.0	7
14	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
15	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Farense	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.3	3
18	Boavista	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+19	+13.7	15
2	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+4	+0.4	10
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	+1.3	9
4	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.0	8
5	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
6	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.4	8
7	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.8	7
8	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.9	6
9	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-3	+3.6	6
10	Casa Pia	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.7	5
11	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.7	3
12	Nacional	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.9	2
13	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.9	2
14	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-8	-5.7	2
15	AVS	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.4	1
16	Farense	5	0	1	4	-6	-8.3	1
17	Estrela	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.8	1
18	Rio Ave	5	0	0	5	-14	-10.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.