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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Vieira

Estoril

T T T U U

1–0

Full-time

Nacional

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

0,3

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,68 xG 2,14

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

22 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Estoril 16. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+17	+13.6	15
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+6	+7.7	12
3	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.5	10
4	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.8	10
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.2	9
6	Santa Clara	5	3	0	2	+1	+1.8	9
7	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.3	8
8	Moreirense	5	2	1	2	-1	+1.5	7
9	AVS	5	2	1	2	-1	-2.8	7
10	Gil Vicente	5	1	3	1	-1	-1.2	6
11	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.1	6
12	Rio Ave	5	2	0	3	-3	-4.2	6
13	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
14	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.1	4
15	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.6	3
16	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-4	-6.2	2
17	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.4	1
18	Farense	5	0	0	5	-10	-9.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.0	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+9.8	9
3	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
4	AVS	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
5	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.0	6
6	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.7	6
7	Rio Ave	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.0	4
9	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
10	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
11	Casa Pia	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
12	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
13	Nacional	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.6	3
14	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
15	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
16	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.4	1
17	Estrela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+13	+8.5	9
2	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.1	3
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
6	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.1	3
9	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.2	3
10	Gil Vicente	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.2	2
11	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
12	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.9	1
14	Benfica	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	Farense	3	0	0	3	-4	-5.2	0
18	Rio Ave	3	0	0	3	-5	-5.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.