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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Nacional

T T S T U

0–3

Full-time

Santa Clara

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Santa Clara

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 19%

17%

20%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 82%

83%

80%

Both score Ø 74%

67%

80%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

12 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 17. · Santa Clara 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	0	1	+11	15
2	Benfica	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Sp Lisbon	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	1	1	+4	13
6	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Feirense	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	Chaves	6	2	1	3	-4	7
9	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-5	7
10	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Guimaraes	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Boavista	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Portimonense	5	1	1	3	-4	4
17	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Aves	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Rio Ave	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Feirense	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Chaves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Aves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+1	5
4	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
10	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Chaves	3	1	0	2	-5	3
14	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Aves	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.