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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Porto

T T U S U

1–1

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 73%

65%

80%

Points per game

2,1

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

60%

70%

Both score Ø 38%

35%

40%

Average goals

3,1

3,6

Scored

2,2

2,8

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+2,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,34 xG 0,96

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Porto 3. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	20	16	2	2	+41	+34.2	50
2	Benfica	20	14	2	4	+30	+24.0	44
3	Porto	20	13	3	4	+27	+21.2	42
4	Sp Braga	20	12	4	4	+16	+15.0	40
5	Santa Clara	20	11	2	7	+2	+8.4	35
6	Casa Pia	20	8	6	6	+1	-5.2	30
7	Guimaraes	20	7	8	5	+5	+6.5	29
8	Estoril	20	7	6	7	-7	-15.0	27
9	Famalicao	20	5	9	6	-2	-6.6	24
10	Rio Ave	20	6	6	8	-12	-15.9	24
11	Moreirense	20	6	5	9	-5	+0.5	23
12	Gil Vicente	20	5	7	8	-7	-6.7	22
13	Arouca	20	6	4	10	-13	-9.9	22
14	Nacional	20	5	4	11	-11	-4.0	19
15	AVS	20	3	9	8	-14	-9.1	18
16	Estrela	20	4	5	11	-15	-12.2	17
17	Farense	20	3	6	11	-15	-15.4	15
18	Boavista	20	2	6	12	-21	-9.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+23	+21.8	28
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
3	Sp Lisbon	10	9	0	1	+18	+14.2	27
4	Santa Clara	11	7	1	3	+2	+11.1	22
5	Guimaraes	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
6	Rio Ave	10	4	5	1	+1	-1.8	17
7	Gil Vicente	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.4	16
8	Casa Pia	10	4	4	2	+4	+0.5	16
9	Moreirense	10	4	4	2	+1	-1.7	16
10	Nacional	10	5	1	4	-2	-2.0	16
11	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+6	+11.7	15
12	Estoril	10	4	3	3	-2	-6.1	15
13	Estrela	11	4	2	5	-3	-5.1	14
14	AVS	10	3	4	3	-4	-5.6	13
15	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-2	-0.3	11
16	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	-6.7	11
17	Farense	9	2	1	6	-8	-4.5	7
18	Boavista	10	0	3	7	-13	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+10	+3.3	25
2	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
3	Benfica	10	5	2	3	+4	+6.6	17
4	Porto	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.7	14
5	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-3	-5.8	14
6	Famalicao	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.3	13
7	Santa Clara	9	4	1	4	+0	-2.7	13
8	Estoril	10	3	3	4	-5	-8.9	12
9	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	-3.2	11
10	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-1	+1.6	10
11	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-8	-5.8	9
12	Farense	11	1	5	5	-7	-10.9	8
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-6	+2.2	7
14	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-13	-14.0	7
15	Gil Vicente	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.1	6
16	AVS	10	0	5	5	-10	-3.5	5
17	Nacional	10	0	3	7	-9	-2.0	3
18	Estrela	9	0	3	6	-12	-7.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.