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Primeira Liga
Referee: André Narciso
Porto
S S T T T
1–1
Full-time
Santa Clara
T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Santa Clara
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
1,7
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 64%
72%
56%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
61%
33%
Both score Ø 31%
28%
33%
Average goals
3,1
2,2
Scored
2,3
1,1
Conceded
0,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,19 xG 0,04
78% Possession 22%
21 Shots 2
7 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 23
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Porto 3. · Santa Clara 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 19 15 2 2 +39 +33.6 47
2 Benfica 19 13 2 4 +29 +23.2 41
3 Porto 18 13 1 4 +27 +17.9 40
4 Sp Braga 18 10 4 4 +12 +12.6 34
5 Santa Clara 18 10 1 7 +1 +9.9 31
6 Casa Pia 19 8 6 5 +2 -3.6 30
7 Guimaraes 19 6 8 5 +3 +5.5 26
8 Estoril 19 6 6 7 -8 -14.9 24
9 Moreirense 19 6 5 8 -4 +0.7 23
10 Rio Ave 19 6 5 8 -12 -15.7 23
11 Gil Vicente 18 5 7 6 -5 -5.8 22
12 Famalicao 19 4 9 6 -4 -8.2 21
13 Nacional 19 5 4 10 -10 -3.2 19
14 Arouca 19 5 4 10 -14 -10.7 19
15 Estrela 19 4 5 10 -14 -11.4 17
16 AVS 18 2 9 7 -13 -9.0 15
17 Farense 19 3 6 10 -13 -14.8 15
18 Boavista 18 2 6 10 -16 -6.0 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Santa Clara
Pepê 🟨
-5′
Wenderson Galeno 🟨
12′
João Mário 🔁
↦ Martim Fernandes
15′
22′
🟨 Diogo Calila
João Mário 🟨
23′
33′
Gabriel Silva 0–1
Gustavo Klismahn
40′
🔁 Lucas Soares
↦ Diogo Calila
Half-time 0–1
Tiago Djaló 🟨
46′
47′
🟨 Pedro Ferreira
52′
🟨 Matheus Pereira
Rodrigo Mora 🔁
↦ Vasco Sousa
55′
Z. Sanusi 🔁
↦ Francisco Moura
55′
65′
🟨 Vinícius Lopes
69′
🔁 Ricardinho
↦ Vinícius Lopes
69′
🔁 Serginho
↦ Gustavo Klismahn
70′
🟨 Gabriel Batista
Wenderson Galeno
penalty missed
72′
1–1 Otávio
A. Varela
76′
D. Namaso 🔁
↦ D. Gül
77′
Pepê 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Borges
77′
80′
🟨 Matheus Pereira
80′
🟥 Matheus Pereira
83′
🔁 Guilherme Ramos
↦ Pedro Ferreira
83′
🔁 Daniel Borges
↦ Gabriel Silva
Wenderson Galeno
penalty missed
96′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-2-3-1
99 Diogo Costa G
52 Martim Fernandes D
3 Tiago Djaló D
4 Otávio D
74 Francisco Moura D
15 Vasco Sousa M
22 A. Varela M
70 Gonçalo Borges M
10 Fábio Vieira M
13 Galeno M
27 D. Gül F
Bench (9)
23 João Mário
86 Rodrigo Mora
12 Z. Sanusi
19 D. Namaso
11 Pepê
88 Domingos Andrade
14 Cláudio Ramos
24 N. Pérez
97 Zé Pedro

Coach: José Tavares

Santa Clara

5-4-1
1 Gabriel Batista G
2 Diogo Calila D
23 Sidney Lima D
13 Luís Rocha D
32 MT D
3 Matheus Pereira D
70 Vinícius Lopes M
8 Pedro Ferreira M
6 Adriano Firmino M
77 Gustavo Klismahn M
11 Gabriel Silva F
Bench (9)
42 Lucas Soares
10 Ricardinho
35 Serginho
27 Guilherme Ramos
41 Daniel Borges
21 Frederico Venâncio
7 Matheusinho
12 Neneca
17 João Costa

Coach: Vasco Matos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,46
U ✓
4,12
B
7,29
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,12
U2,5 ✓
1,71
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

André Narciso · 95 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
30,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.