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Champions League
Referee: M Lukjančukas
RB Leipzig
S T S T U
2–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,8
3,3
Scored
2,2
2,2
Conceded
2,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,3
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
2,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,32 xG 0,92
47% Possession 53%
10 Shots 17
6 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 9
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
0 Corners 9
3 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 6
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

RB Leipzig Sp Lisbon
David Raum 🟨
-5′
1–0 B. Šeško ⚽
D. Raum
19′
29′
🔁 Gonçalo Inácio
↦ J. St. Juste
David Raum ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
33′
Half-time 1–0
55′
🔁 V. Gyökeres
↦ C. Harder
55′
🔁 Daniel Bragança
↦ Geny Catamo
55′
🔁 H. Morita
↦ Z. Debast
Y. Poulsen 🔁
↦ X. Simons
61′
L. Klostermann 🔁
↦ D. Raum
61′
A. Nusa 🔁
↦ L. Openda
62′
K. Kampl 🔁
↦ A. Haidara
70′
75′
⚽ V. Gyökeres 1–1
Daniel Bragança
76′
🔁 Ricardo Esgaio
↦ Iván Fresneda
2–1 Y. Poulsen ⚽
78′
A. Vermeeren 🔁
↦ C. Baumgartner
84′
Maarten Vandevoordt 🟨
86′
Willi Orbán 🟨
87′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
26 M. Vandevoordt G
3 L. Geertruida D
4 W. Orbán D
5 E. Bitshiabu D
22 D. Raum D
13 N. Seiwald M
8 A. Haidara M
14 C. Baumgartner M
10 X. Simons M
30 B. Šeško F
11 L. Openda F
Bench (9)
9 Y. Poulsen
16 L. Klostermann
7 A. Nusa
44 K. Kampl
18 A. Vermeeren
33 F. Dickes
47 V. Gebel
1 P. Gulácsi
6 E. Elmas

Coach: M. Rose

Sp Lisbon

4-4-2
1 F. Israel G
22 Iván Fresneda D
26 O. Diomande D
3 J. St. Juste D
20 M. Araújo D
21 Geny Catamo M
42 M. Hjulmand M
6 Z. Debast M
57 Geovany Quenda M
17 Trincão F
19 C. Harder F
Bench (12)
25 Gonçalo Inácio
9 V. Gyökeres
23 Daniel Bragança
5 H. Morita
47 Ricardo Esgaio
50 Alexandre Brito
52 João Simões
51 Diogo Pinto
86 Rafael Nel
78 Mauro Couto
13 V. Kovačević
71 Denilson Santos

Coach: Rui Borges

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Lukjančukas · 23 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.