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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,7

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 69%

74%

63%

Points per game

2,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

74%

52%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

44%

Average goals

3,6

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,6

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,26 xG 0,64

48% Possession 52%

15 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 0

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	28	22	2	4	+46	+41.4	68
2	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+50	+42.2	65
3	Porto	28	17	5	6	+29	+23.4	56
4	Sp Braga	27	17	5	5	+21	+14.9	56
5	Santa Clara	28	14	4	10	+1	+8.7	46
6	Guimaraes	28	11	12	5	+11	+10.3	45
7	Famalicao	28	10	10	8	+4	-8.1	40
8	Casa Pia	28	11	7	10	-2	-9.4	40
9	Estoril	28	10	9	9	-5	-13.3	39
10	Moreirense	28	9	8	11	-5	-0.7	35
11	Nacional	28	8	5	15	-12	-7.8	29
12	Arouca	28	7	8	13	-16	-6.7	29
13	Rio Ave	28	7	8	13	-17	-17.3	29
14	Gil Vicente	28	6	8	14	-15	-10.9	26
15	Estrela	28	6	8	14	-19	-14.7	26
16	AVS	28	4	11	13	-23	-16.8	23
17	Farense	28	3	9	16	-21	-18.4	18
18	Boavista	28	4	6	18	-27	-16.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	14	13	0	1	+34	+25.6	39
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+22	+18.8	34
3	Porto	14	10	3	1	+22	+20.9	33
4	Guimaraes	14	8	5	1	+11	+7.4	29
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+11	+13.4	27
6	Santa Clara	14	8	2	4	+2	+10.8	26
7	Casa Pia	14	7	4	3	+5	-0.7	25
8	Moreirense	14	6	6	2	+3	-0.6	24
9	Nacional	14	7	2	5	+0	-1.9	23
10	Estoril	14	6	4	4	-1	-5.4	22
11	Famalicao	14	5	6	3	+4	+2.5	21
12	Rio Ave	14	5	6	3	-1	-3.3	21
13	Gil Vicente	14	4	4	6	-1	-1.2	16
14	Estrela	14	4	4	6	-6	-6.9	16
15	Arouca	14	3	5	6	-7	-5.0	14
16	AVS	14	3	5	6	-9	-10.0	14
17	Farense	14	2	2	10	-13	-4.7	8
18	Boavista	14	1	3	10	-16	-4.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	9	4	1	+28	+23.4	31
2	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+12	+15.8	29
3	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+10	+1.6	29
4	Porto	14	7	2	5	+7	+2.5	23
5	Santa Clara	14	6	2	6	-1	-2.1	20
6	Famalicao	14	5	4	5	+0	-10.6	19
7	Estoril	14	4	5	5	-4	-7.9	17
8	Guimaraes	14	3	7	4	+0	+2.9	16
9	Casa Pia	14	4	3	7	-7	-8.7	15
10	Arouca	14	4	3	7	-9	-1.8	15
11	Boavista	14	3	3	8	-11	-12.3	12
12	Moreirense	14	3	2	9	-8	-0.1	11
13	Farense	14	1	7	6	-8	-13.7	10
14	Estrela	14	2	4	8	-13	-7.9	10
15	Gil Vicente	14	2	4	8	-14	-9.6	10
16	AVS	14	1	6	7	-14	-6.9	9
17	Rio Ave	14	2	2	10	-16	-14.0	8
18	Nacional	14	1	3	10	-12	-5.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.