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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Carvalho

Sp Lisbon

T U U U S

3–1

Full-time

Estoril

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 55%

70%

39%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

70%

65%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,20 xG 0,53

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Estoril 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	23	16	5	2	+41	+34.0	53
2	Benfica	23	17	2	4	+35	+31.5	53
3	Porto	24	15	5	4	+30	+23.1	50
4	Sp Braga	24	14	5	5	+18	+14.9	47
5	Santa Clara	24	12	3	9	+1	+6.7	39
6	Casa Pia	24	10	6	8	+1	-5.7	36
7	Guimaraes	24	8	11	5	+6	+9.2	35
8	Estoril	23	9	7	7	-5	-15.8	34
9	Famalicao	24	7	10	7	+1	-5.5	31
10	Rio Ave	24	7	8	9	-12	-14.3	29
11	Moreirense	24	7	6	11	-7	+0.0	27
12	Nacional	24	7	5	12	-9	-4.9	26
13	Arouca	24	6	7	11	-15	-9.0	25
14	AVS	24	4	11	9	-14	-10.9	23
15	Gil Vicente	23	5	7	11	-12	-9.1	22
16	Estrela	24	5	7	12	-15	-12.4	22
17	Farense	24	3	7	14	-19	-16.6	16
18	Boavista	24	3	6	15	-25	-15.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	0	1	+30	+23.1	33
2	Porto	12	9	3	0	+23	+22.0	30
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+18	+14.3	28
4	Guimaraes	12	6	5	1	+7	+7.4	23
5	Casa Pia	12	6	4	2	+6	+2.4	22
6	Santa Clara	12	7	1	4	+1	+9.3	22
7	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+9	+14.0	21
8	Rio Ave	12	5	6	1	+2	+0.4	21
9	Estoril	12	6	3	3	+0	-6.1	21
10	Moreirense	12	5	5	2	+2	-1.3	20
11	Nacional	12	6	2	4	-1	-1.3	20
12	Gil Vicente	11	4	4	3	+4	+0.8	16
13	Famalicao	12	3	6	3	+0	+0.1	15
14	Estrela	12	4	3	5	-3	-4.8	15
15	AVS	12	3	5	4	-5	-6.3	14
16	Arouca	12	3	4	5	-6	-5.8	13
17	Farense	12	2	1	9	-12	-4.8	7
18	Boavista	12	1	3	8	-13	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.9	26
2	Sp Lisbon	12	7	4	1	+23	+19.6	25
3	Porto	12	6	2	4	+7	+1.1	20
4	Benfica	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.4	20
5	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+0	-2.7	17
6	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	+1	-5.6	16
7	Casa Pia	12	4	2	6	-5	-8.1	14
8	Estoril	11	3	4	4	-5	-9.8	13
9	Guimaraes	12	2	6	4	-1	+1.8	12
10	Arouca	12	3	3	6	-9	-3.2	12
11	Farense	12	1	6	5	-7	-11.8	9
12	AVS	12	1	6	5	-9	-4.6	9
13	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-12	-11.3	9
14	Rio Ave	12	2	2	8	-14	-14.6	8
15	Moreirense	12	2	1	9	-9	+1.3	7
16	Estrela	12	1	4	7	-12	-7.6	7
17	Nacional	12	1	3	8	-8	-3.7	6
18	Gil Vicente	12	1	3	8	-16	-9.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.