Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sp Lisbon
|
29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | +51 | +43.0 | 69 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
29 | 22 | 3 | 4 | +46 | +42.9 | 69 |
| 3 |
Sp Braga
|
29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | +24 | +15.9 | 60 |
| 4 |
Porto
|
29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | +30 | +23.6 | 59 |
| 5 |
Guimaraes
|
29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | +12 | +10.5 | 48 |
| 6 |
Santa Clara
|
29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | +0 | +8.6 | 46 |
| 7 |
Famalicao
|
29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | +7 | -6.3 | 43 |
| 8 |
Casa Pia
|
29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | -9.6 | 40 |
| 9 |
Estoril
|
29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -8 | -15.1 | 39 |
| 10 |
Moreirense
|
29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -7 | -1.8 | 35 |
| 11 |
Nacional
|
29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -11 | -8.5 | 32 |
| 12 |
Rio Ave
|
29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | -15 | -16.2 | 32 |
| 13 |
Arouca
|
29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -16 | -8.2 | 30 |
| 14 |
Gil Vicente
|
29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -16 | -11.2 | 26 |
| 15 |
Estrela
|
29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -20 | -14.5 | 26 |
| 16 |
AVS
|
29 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -26 | -18.4 | 23 |
| 17 |
Farense
|
29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -20 | -18.6 | 21 |
| 18 |
Boavista
|
29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -28 | -16.1 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
João Tomé
D
K. Kostoulas
D
A. Ntoi
D
N. Abbey
D
E. Tıknaz
M
Clayton
F
Coach: Petit
Sidney Lima
D
Lucas Soares
M
Pedro Ferreira
M
Vinícius Lopes
F
Gabriel Silva
F
Coach: Vasco Matos
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Boavista
Sp Lisbon
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Benfica
Sérgio Guelho · 17 kamper i vår database
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.