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Primeira Liga
Referee: Sérgio Guelho
Rio Ave
T T T T S
1–1
Full-time
Santa Clara
U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Santa Clara
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
33%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,5
1,3
Scored
0,8
0,5
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 38%
28%
48%
Points per game
1,1
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
52%
28%
Both score Ø 45%
55%
34%
Average goals
2,7
1,9
Scored
1,1
1,0
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,46 xG 1,64
49% Possession 51%
8 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 4
3 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rio Ave 12. · Santa Clara 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 29 21 6 2 +51 +43.0 69
2 Benfica 29 22 3 4 +46 +42.9 69
3 Sp Braga 29 18 6 5 +24 +15.9 60
4 Porto 29 18 5 6 +30 +23.6 59
5 Guimaraes 29 12 12 5 +12 +10.5 48
6 Santa Clara 29 14 4 11 +0 +8.6 46
7 Famalicao 29 11 10 8 +7 -6.3 43
8 Casa Pia 29 11 7 11 -3 -9.6 40
9 Estoril 29 10 9 10 -8 -15.1 39
10 Moreirense 29 9 8 12 -7 -1.8 35
11 Nacional 29 9 5 15 -11 -8.5 32
12 Rio Ave 29 8 8 13 -15 -16.2 32
13 Arouca 29 7 9 13 -16 -8.2 30
14 Gil Vicente 29 6 8 15 -16 -11.2 26
15 Estrela 29 6 8 15 -20 -14.5 26
16 AVS 29 4 11 14 -26 -18.4 23
17 Farense 29 4 9 16 -20 -18.6 21
18 Boavista 29 4 6 19 -28 -16.1 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rio Ave Santa Clara
Konstantinos Kostoulas 🟨
5′
8′
🟨 Guilherme Ramos
1–0 André Luiz
Clayton
25′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Ricardinho
↦ Vinícius Lopes
60′
🔁 Diogo Calila
↦ Lucas Soares
60′
🔁 Wendel
↦ João Costa
60′
🔁 Serginho
↦ Pedro Ferreira
Andreas Ndoj 🟨
70′
O. Pohlmann 🔁
↦ João Graça
73′
M. Vrousai 🔁
↦ João Novais
73′
75′
🔁 Matheusinho
↦ Guilherme Ramos
Martim Neto 🔁
↦ B. Aguilera
81′
85′
Sidney Lima 1–1
Gabriel Silva
89′
🟨 Matheusinho
K. Zoabi 🔁
↦ André Luiz
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Rio Ave

4-1-4-1
1 C. Miszta G
20 João Tomé D
82 K. Kostoulas D
3 A. Ntoi D
4 N. Abbey D
34 E. Tıknaz M
7 André Luiz M
6 João Novais M
16 B. Aguilera M
21 João Graça M
9 Clayton F
Bench (9)
80 O. Pohlmann
17 M. Vrousai
76 Martim Neto
14 K. Zoabi
8 Vitor Gomes
27 T. Medina
95 Matheus Teixeira
29 T. Bakoulas
22 João Pedro

Coach: Petit

Santa Clara

3-4-3
1 Gabriel Batista G
23 Sidney Lima D
27 Guilherme Ramos D
32 MT D
42 Lucas Soares M
6 Adriano Firmino M
8 Pedro Ferreira M
3 Matheus Pereira M
70 Vinícius Lopes F
17 João Costa F
11 Gabriel Silva F
Bench (9)
10 Ricardinho
2 Diogo Calila
29 Wendel
35 Serginho
7 Matheusinho
22 Edney
41 Daniel Borges
12 Neneca
21 Frederico Venâncio

Coach: Vasco Matos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,84
U ✓
3,06
B
2,60
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,42
U2,5 ✓
1,54
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Sérgio Guelho · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
29,5 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.