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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Derby

S S T U U

0–1

Full-time

Luton

U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 42/42 matches

Win Ø 25%

26%

24%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

40%

43%

Both score Ø 49%

48%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,75 xG 0,52

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 21. · Luton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	42	25	13	4	+53	+49.5	88
2	Burnley	42	24	16	2	+44	+16.0	88
3	Sheffield United	39	24	6	9	+22	+14.5	78
4	Sunderland	39	21	12	6	+23	+13.5	75
5	Bristol City	40	16	15	9	+10	+2.9	63
6	West Brom	42	14	18	10	+12	+11.2	60
7	Middlesbrough	42	17	9	16	+10	+11.3	60
8	Millwall	42	16	12	14	+0	+2.1	60
9	Coventry	40	17	8	15	+2	+17.6	59
10	Blackburn	42	16	8	18	+0	-2.0	56
11	Watford	42	16	8	18	-5	-6.3	56
12	Swansea	42	15	9	18	-6	-0.6	54
13	Norwich	42	13	14	15	+5	+10.9	53
14	Sheffield Weds	42	14	11	17	-8	-2.5	53
15	QPR	42	12	14	16	-6	-5.2	50
16	Preston	42	10	19	13	-8	-5.0	49
17	Oxford	42	12	12	18	-17	-24.3	48
18	Stoke	42	11	14	17	-11	-15.6	47
19	Portsmouth	42	12	10	20	-16	-14.0	46
20	Hull	42	11	12	19	-9	-5.9	45
21	Derby	42	11	10	21	-10	-7.6	43
22	Cardiff	42	9	15	18	-21	-14.9	42
23	Luton	42	10	10	22	-26	-6.9	40
24	Plymouth	42	9	13	20	-38	-38.5	40

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	21	16	4	1	+39	+31.7	52
2	Burnley	21	12	9	0	+24	+10.1	45
3	Bristol City	20	12	6	2	+16	+7.7	42
4	Sunderland	20	12	6	2	+16	+13.7	42
5	Sheffield United	19	13	2	4	+13	+14.4	41
6	Watford	21	12	3	6	+6	+0.5	39
7	West Brom	21	10	8	3	+13	+10.7	38
8	Portsmouth	21	10	6	5	+11	+3.5	36
9	Coventry	20	11	3	6	+9	+10.5	36
10	Norwich	21	9	8	4	+18	+12.6	35
11	Middlesbrough	21	10	5	6	+7	+8.2	35
12	Oxford	21	10	5	6	+1	-6.1	35
13	Blackburn	21	10	4	7	+7	+5.7	34
14	Millwall	21	10	4	7	+5	+7.9	34
15	Preston	21	7	12	2	+6	+6.1	33
16	Swansea	21	9	5	7	+8	+8.8	32
17	Derby	21	9	4	8	+8	+2.1	31
18	Plymouth	21	8	7	6	+0	-5.9	31
19	Stoke	21	7	9	5	+4	-4.1	30
20	QPR	21	7	8	6	+3	+4.2	29
21	Luton	21	7	7	7	+0	+7.2	28
22	Cardiff	21	7	4	10	-3	-0.4	25
23	Sheffield Weds	21	5	7	9	-3	+4.0	22
24	Hull	21	4	8	9	-4	+4.3	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	21	12	7	2	+20	+5.9	43
2	Sheffield United	20	11	4	5	+9	+0.1	37
3	Leeds	21	9	9	3	+14	+17.8	36
4	Sunderland	19	9	6	4	+7	-0.2	33
5	Sheffield Weds	21	9	4	8	-5	-6.5	31
6	Millwall	21	6	8	7	-5	-5.8	26
7	Middlesbrough	21	7	4	10	+3	+3.2	25
8	Hull	21	7	4	10	-5	-10.1	25
9	Coventry	20	6	5	9	-7	+7.1	23
10	West Brom	21	4	10	7	-1	+0.4	22
11	Blackburn	21	6	4	11	-7	-7.7	22
12	Swansea	21	6	4	11	-14	-9.4	22
13	Bristol City	20	4	9	7	-6	-4.8	21
14	QPR	21	5	6	10	-9	-9.4	21
15	Norwich	21	4	6	11	-13	-1.7	18
16	Watford	21	4	5	12	-11	-6.9	17
17	Stoke	21	4	5	12	-15	-11.6	17
18	Cardiff	21	2	11	8	-18	-14.5	17
19	Preston	21	3	7	11	-14	-11.1	16
20	Oxford	21	2	7	12	-18	-18.2	13
21	Derby	21	2	6	13	-18	-9.8	12
22	Luton	21	3	3	15	-26	-14.2	12
23	Portsmouth	21	2	4	15	-27	-17.6	10
24	Plymouth	21	1	6	14	-38	-32.6	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.