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Primeira Liga

Referee: R Baixinho

Estrela

T T T U T

2–2

Full-time

Alverca

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,63 xG 1,17

56% Possession 44%

19 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 24

4 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Estrela 13. · Alverca 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+11	+7.0	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.0	9
3	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.1	9
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.2	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.2	7
6	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.6	6
7	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-4	-3.5	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.4	3
10	Casa Pia	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.6	3
11	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
13	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
14	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.1	1
15	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.3	1
16	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.6	6
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+6	+2.6	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
8	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
9	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
11	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
13	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
14	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
15	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
16	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
17	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.9	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.2	3
9	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
12	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
13	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
14	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
15	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.8	0
18	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-6	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.