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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Leicester

T T S U U

0–1

Full-time

Man City

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 62%

58%

65%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

65%

77%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,7

Scored

2,1

2,6

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

31% Possession 69%

10 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 3. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	25	1	0	+46	76
2	Man City	26	17	3	6	+38	54
3	Leicester	26	15	5	6	+28	50
4	Chelsea	27	13	5	9	+8	44
5	Tottenham	27	11	7	9	+8	40
6	Sheffield United	27	10	10	7	+4	40
7	Man United	26	10	8	8	+9	38
8	Burnley	27	11	4	12	-6	37
9	Wolves	26	8	12	6	+3	36
10	Everton	26	10	6	10	-4	36
11	Arsenal	26	7	13	6	+2	34
12	Southampton	27	10	4	13	-14	34
13	Crystal Palace	27	8	9	10	-8	33
14	Newcastle	27	8	7	12	-17	31
15	Brighton	27	6	10	11	-7	28
16	Bournemouth	27	7	5	15	-17	26
17	Aston Villa	27	7	4	16	-18	25
18	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-15	24
19	Watford	26	5	9	12	-16	24
20	Norwich	26	4	6	16	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	13	0	0	+26	39
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Leicester	13	8	3	2	+12	27
4	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+13	26
5	Everton	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Man United	13	6	5	2	+12	23
7	Burnley	14	7	1	6	+1	22
8	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+3	21
9	Sheffield United	14	6	3	5	+3	21
10	Arsenal	13	5	5	3	+4	20
11	Newcastle	13	5	5	3	+0	20
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Brighton	13	4	6	3	+3	18
14	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+1	18
15	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	-6	17
16	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-4	16
17	Watford	13	3	5	5	-4	14
18	Southampton	14	4	2	8	-14	14
19	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-5	12
20	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+20	37
2	Man City	13	8	1	4	+17	25
3	Leicester	13	7	2	4	+16	23
4	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Southampton	13	6	2	5	+0	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
7	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Man United	13	4	3	6	-3	15
9	Burnley	13	4	3	6	-7	15
10	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
11	Tottenham	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Crystal Palace	13	3	5	5	-6	14
13	Everton	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-10	12
15	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-17	11
16	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
17	Watford	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Bournemouth	14	3	1	10	-13	10
19	Aston Villa	14	2	2	10	-12	8
20	Norwich	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.