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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Liverpool
U T T S S
2–5
Full-time
Real Madrid
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
1,8
2,2
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
2,8
2,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,97 xG 1,64
52% Possession 48%
9 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 3
9 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Liverpool Real Madrid
1–0 D. Núñez ⚽
Mohamed Salah
4′
2–0 Mohamed Salah ⚽
14′
21′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 2–1
K. Benzema
27′
🔁 Nacho
↦ D. Alaba
36′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 2–2
Half-time 2–3
47′
⚽ Éder Militão 2–3
L. Modrić
55′
⚽ K. Benzema 2–4
Rodrygo
60′
🟨 Vinícius Júnior
Roberto Firmino 🔁
↦ C. Gakpo
64′
Diogo Jota 🔁
↦ D. Núñez
64′
67′
⚽ K. Benzema 2–5
Vinícius Júnior
J. Milner 🔁
↦ J. Henderson
73′
J. Matip 🔁
↦ J. Gomez
73′
81′
🔁 Dani Ceballos
↦ Rodrygo
H. Elliott 🔁
↦ Stefan Bajčetić
85′
87′
🔁 T. Kroos
↦ L. Modrić
87′
🔁 Marco Asensio
↦ K. Benzema
Harvey Elliott 🟨
93′
Full-time 2–5

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson G
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
2 J. Gomez D
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
14 J. Henderson M
3 Fabinho M
43 Stefan Bajčetić M
11 Mohamed Salah F
18 C. Gakpo F
27 D. Núñez F
Bench (12)
9 Roberto Firmino
20 Diogo Jota
7 J. Milner
32 J. Matip
19 H. Elliott
17 C. Jones
8 N. Keïta
62 C. Kelleher
21 K. Tsimikas
15 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
13 Adrián
28 Fábio Carvalho

Coach: J. Klopp

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
2 Dani Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
22 A. Rüdiger D
4 D. Alaba D
15 F. Valverde M
12 E. Camavinga M
10 L. Modrić M
21 Rodrygo F
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
6 Nacho
19 Dani Ceballos
8 T. Kroos
11 Marco Asensio
5 Vallejo
16 Odriozola
31 Mario Martín
33 Sergio Arribas
13 A. Lunin
7 E. Hazard
17 Lucas Vázquez
39 Á. Rodríguez

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.