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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Real Madrid

T S S S U

2–0

Full-time

Valencia

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

72%

28%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 64%

72%

56%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,27 xG 0,19

71% Possession 29%

19 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Valencia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	16	2	1	+32	+1.0	50
2	Real Madrid	18	13	3	2	+22	+0.7	42
3	Sociedad	19	12	3	4	+10	-0.0	39
4	Ath Madrid	19	10	4	5	+12	+4.2	34
5	Villarreal	19	9	4	6	+7	+2.1	31
6	Betis	19	9	4	6	+5	-1.5	31
7	Vallecano	19	8	5	6	+3	-0.5	29
8	Osasuna	19	8	4	7	+0	-2.2	28
9	Ath Bilbao	19	7	5	7	+5	-0.3	26
10	Mallorca	19	7	4	8	-3	-1.5	25
11	Almeria	19	6	4	9	-6	+0.9	22
12	Girona	19	5	6	8	-3	-2.4	21
13	Sevilla	19	5	6	8	-5	+4.1	21
14	Valencia	18	5	5	8	+4	+0.3	20
15	Espanol	19	4	8	7	-6	+0.1	20
16	Celta	19	5	5	9	-11	+0.4	20
17	Valladolid	19	6	2	11	-14	-2.8	20
18	Cadiz	19	4	7	8	-15	-0.1	19
19	Getafe	19	4	5	10	-10	-0.8	17
20	Elche	19	0	6	13	-27	-1.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	7	2	0	+18	-0.4	23
2	Villarreal	9	6	1	2	+7	+2.1	19
3	Almeria	10	6	1	3	+5	+1.3	19
4	Real Madrid	8	5	3	0	+9	+0.8	18
5	Osasuna	10	6	0	4	+3	-1.4	18
6	Betis	9	5	2	2	+6	-1.3	17
7	Ath Bilbao	10	5	2	3	+6	+0.1	17
8	Sociedad	9	5	2	2	+2	–	17
9	Valladolid	10	5	1	4	+0	+0.1	16
10	Girona	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.1	15
11	Valencia	10	4	2	4	+7	+0.4	14
12	Ath Madrid	9	4	2	3	+5	+2.9	14
13	Vallecano	9	4	2	3	+2	-0.8	14
14	Mallorca	9	4	2	3	+1	+0.0	14
15	Celta	10	3	4	3	+0	+0.4	13
16	Sevilla	10	3	3	4	-2	+4.1	12
17	Cadiz	10	2	5	3	-6	+1.5	11
18	Espanol	9	2	3	4	-4	+1.4	9
19	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-4	-1.2	9
20	Elche	9	0	3	6	-10	+0.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	+14	+1.3	27
2	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	+13	-0.1	24
3	Sociedad	10	7	1	2	+8	-0.0	22
4	Ath Madrid	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.4	20
5	Vallecano	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.3	15
6	Betis	10	4	2	4	-1	-0.2	14
7	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	+0	–	12
8	Espanol	10	2	5	3	-2	-1.3	11
9	Mallorca	10	3	2	5	-4	-1.5	11
10	Osasuna	9	2	4	3	-3	-0.8	10
11	Ath Bilbao	9	2	3	4	-1	-0.4	9
12	Sevilla	9	2	3	4	-3	–	9
13	Getafe	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.4	8
14	Cadiz	9	2	2	5	-9	-1.6	8
15	Celta	9	2	1	6	-11	-0.0	7
16	Valencia	8	1	3	4	-3	-0.1	6
17	Girona	9	1	3	5	-4	-2.3	6
18	Valladolid	9	1	1	7	-14	-2.9	4
19	Almeria	9	0	3	6	-11	-0.4	3
20	Elche	10	0	3	7	-17	-2.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.