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La Liga
Referee: Alejandro Hernández
Mallorca
S T T S T
1–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mallorca Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
1,3
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,8
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 56%
37%
74%
Points per game
1,3
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
16%
63%
Both score Ø 50%
32%
68%
Average goals
1,7
2,9
Scored
0,8
2,1
Conceded
0,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,23 xG 0,93
26% Possession 74%
4 Shots 20
1 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 12
1 Offside 1
29 Free kicks against 14
5 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mallorca 10. · Real Madrid 2.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 19 16 2 1 +32 +1.0 50
2 Real Madrid 19 14 3 2 +24 +2.8 45
3 Sociedad 19 12 3 4 +10 -0.0 39
4 Ath Madrid 20 10 5 5 +12 +3.8 35
5 Villarreal 20 9 4 7 +5 +0.6 31
6 Betis 20 9 4 7 +4 +0.1 31
7 Ath Bilbao 20 8 5 7 +8 -0.0 29
8 Vallecano 19 8 5 6 +3 -0.5 29
9 Osasuna 20 8 5 7 +0 -2.8 29
10 Mallorca 19 7 4 8 -3 -1.5 25
11 Celta 20 6 5 9 -10 -1.2 23
12 Almeria 19 6 4 9 -6 +0.9 22
13 Girona 19 5 6 8 -3 -2.4 21
14 Sevilla 19 5 6 8 -5 +4.1 21
15 Espanol 20 4 9 7 -6 +0.8 21
16 Valencia 19 5 5 9 +2 -1.8 20
17 Valladolid 19 6 2 11 -14 -2.8 20
18 Cadiz 20 4 7 9 -18 -0.4 19
19 Getafe 20 4 6 10 -10 -0.4 18
20 Elche 20 1 6 13 -25 -0.3 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mallorca Real Madrid
0–1 Nacho
own goal
13′
44′
🟨 Vinícius Júnior
Half-time 0–1
47′
🟨 Dani Ceballos
Jaume Costa 🟨
61′
64′
🟨 Federico Valverde
64′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ F. Valverde
A. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ Dani Rodríguez
68′
71′
🔁 D. Alaba
↦ Dani Ceballos
71′
🔁 M. Díaz
↦ Marco Asensio
71′
🔁 T. Kroos
↦ A. Tchouaméni
Amath Ndiaye 🟨
72′
R. Battaglia 🔁
↦ I. Baba
78′
Antonio Sánchez 🔁
↦ Lee Kang-In
78′
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta 🟨
80′
81′
🟨 Luka Modrić
Pablo Maffeo 🟨
87′
90′
🟨 Mariano Díaz
Antonio Raíllo 🟨
92′
C. Grenier 🔁
↦ Ruíz de Galarreta
92′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Mallorca

5-4-1
1 P. Rajković G
15 Pablo Maffeo D
20 G. González D
21 Raíllo D
2 M. Nastasić D
18 Jaume Costa D
14 Dani Rodríguez M
12 I. Baba M
4 Ruíz de Galarreta M
19 Lee Kang-In M
7 V. Muriqi F
Bench (12)
23 A. Ndiaye
16 R. Battaglia
10 Antonio Sánchez
8 C. Grenier
11 Manu Morlanes
3 L. Augustinsson
9 Abdón Prats
31 Leo Román
22 Ángel
5 D. Hadžikadunić
17 T. Kadewere
13 D. Greif

Coach: J. Aguirre

Real Madrid

4-3-3
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
12 E. Camavinga D
15 F. Valverde M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
19 Dani Ceballos M
11 Marco Asensio F
21 Rodrygo F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (8)
10 L. Modrić
4 D. Alaba
24 M. Díaz
8 T. Kroos
1 T. Courtois
16 Odriozola
5 Vallejo
26 Luis López

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,05
U
3,63
B
1,75
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,20
U2,5 ✓
1,69
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Alejandro Hernández · 223 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.