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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Man City
S S U T S
1–0
Full-time
Inter
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Inter
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,3
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 58%
58%
58%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
58%
25%
Both score Ø 30%
42%
17%
Average goals
3,0
2,4
Scored
2,6
1,6
Conceded
0,4
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 1,68
56% Possession 44%
7 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Man City Inter
P. Foden 🔁
↦ K. De Bruyne
36′
Half-time 0–0
57′
🔁 R. Lukaku
↦ E. Džeko
59′
🟨 Nicolò Barella
1–0 Rodri ⚽
68′
76′
🔁 R. Gosens
↦ A. Bastoni
76′
🔁 R. Bellanova
↦ D. Dumfries
K. Walker 🔁
↦ J. Stones
82′
83′
🟨 Romelu Lukaku
84′
🔁 H. Mkhitaryan
↦ H. Çalhanoğlu
84′
🔁 D. D'Ambrosio
↦ M. Darmian
Erling Haaland 🟨
92′
92′
🟨 André Onana
Ederson 🟨
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Man City

3-2-4-1
31 Ederson G
25 M. Akanji D
3 Rúben Dias D
6 N. Aké D
5 J. Stones M
16 Rodri M
20 Bernardo Silva F
17 K. De Bruyne M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
10 J. Grealish F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (12)
47 P. Foden
2 K. Walker
19 J. Álvarez
80 C. Palmer
21 Sergio Gómez
4 K. Phillips
33 S. Carson
26 R. Mahrez
32 M. Perrone
18 S. Ortega
82 R. Lewis
14 Aymeric Laporte

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Inter

3-5-2
24 A. Onana G
36 M. Darmian D
15 F. Acerbi D
95 A. Bastoni D
2 D. Dumfries M
23 N. Barella M
77 M. Brozović M
20 H. Çalhanoğlu M
32 F. Dimarco M
9 E. Džeko F
10 L. Martínez F
Bench (12)
90 R. Lukaku
8 R. Gosens
12 R. Bellanova
22 H. Mkhitaryan
33 D. D'Ambrosio
1 S. Handanovič
11 J. Correa
5 R. Gagliardini
14 K. Asllani
6 S. de Vrij
21 A. Cordaz
37 M. Škriniar

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.