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Champions League
Referee: I Kružliak
Barcelona
U S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,7
4,2
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
3,0
4,5
Scored
3,0
2,0
Conceded
0,0
2,5
Goal diff per game
+3,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,73 xG 0,93
54% Possession 46%
19 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 6
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 2
2 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Barcelona Shakhtar Donetsk
1–0 Ferran Torres ⚽
28′
Ferran Torres ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
29′
2–0 Fermín ⚽
Ferran Torres
36′
Ferran Torres 🟨
43′
Half-time 2–0
50′
🟨 Dmytro Kryskiv
62′
⚽ H. Sudakov 2–1
I. Azarovi
63′
🔁 Newerton
↦ D. Kryskiv
70′
🔁 K. Kelsy
↦ D. Sikan
Alejandro Balde 🔁
↦ Marcos Alonso
71′
72′
🟨 Yukhym Konoplia
Alejandro Baldé 🟨
75′
Marc Guiu 🔁
↦ João Félix
75′
Marc Casadó 🔁
↦ Fermín
82′
A. Christensen 🔁
↦ Iñigo Martínez
82′
87′
🟨 Valeriy Bondar
92′
🔁 Eguinaldo
↦ T. Stepanenko
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
2 João Cancelo D
4 R. Araujo D
5 Iñigo Martínez D
17 Marcos Alonso D
32 Fermín M
18 Oriol Romeu M
22 İ. Gündoğan M
27 Lamine Yamal F
7 Ferran Torres F
14 João Félix F
Bench (9)
3 Alejandro Balde
38 Marc Guiu
30 Marc Casadó
15 A. Christensen
13 Iñaki Peña
26 Ander Astralaga
39 Héctor Fort
34 Aleix Garrido
33 Pau Cubarsí

Coach: Xavi

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-2-3-1
31 D. Riznyk G
26 Y. Konoplia D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matviienko D
16 I. Azarovi D
21 A. Bondarenko M
6 T. Stepanenko M
11 O. Zubkov M
10 H. Sudakov M
8 D. Kryskiv M
14 D. Sikan F
Bench (12)
39 Newerton
18 K. Kelsy
7 Eguinaldo
20 D. Topalov
44 Y. Rakitskyi
29 Y. Nazaryna
27 O. Ocheretko
1 A. Rudko
9 M. Shved
13 G. Gocholeishvili
19 D. Chyhrynskyi
4 D. Castillo

Coach: M. Pusic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kružliak · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.