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Champions League
Referee: José Sánchez
RB Leipzig
S U T U S
3–1
Full-time
FK Crvena Zvezda
T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig FK Crvena Zvezda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,0
4,0
Scored
1,7
1,8
Conceded
1,3
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
4,0
4,0
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
2,0
2,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,79 xG 1,09
65% Possession 35%
27 Shots 16
10 Shots on target 4
9 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
9 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

RB Leipzig FK Crvena Zvezda
1–0 D. Raum ⚽
X. Simons
12′
Benjamin Henrichs 🟨
28′
29′
ℹ️ Peter Olayinka
VAR: Penalty cancelled
34′
🟨 Marko Stamenić
Half-time 1–0
46′
🟨 In-Beom Hwang
46′
🔁 O. Bukari
↦ P. Olayinka
48′
🟨 Milan Rodić
C. Baumgartner 🔁
↦ E. Forsberg
58′
L. Klostermann 🔁
↦ B. Henrichs
58′
2–0 X. Simons ⚽
D. Raum
59′
65′
🔁 K. Nedeljković
↦ M. Rodić
65′
🔁 J. Mijatović
↦ C. Ndiaye
65′
🔁 V. Lučić
↦ S. Mitrović
70′
⚽ M. Stamenić 2–1
71′
🟨 Nasser Djiga
Dani Olmo 🔁
↦ X. Simons
75′
81′
🔁 A. Katai
↦ M. Stamenić
B. Šeško 🔁
↦ L. Openda
82′
T. Werner 🔁
↦ Y. Poulsen
82′
3–1 Dani Olmo ⚽
84′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-4-2
21 J. Blaswich G
39 B. Henrichs D
2 M. Simakan D
23 C. Lukeba D
22 D. Raum D
10 E. Forsberg M
44 K. Kampl M
24 X. Schlager M
20 X. Simons M
9 Y. Poulsen F
17 L. Openda F
Bench (10)
14 C. Baumgartner
16 L. Klostermann
7 Dani Olmo
30 B. Šeško
11 T. Werner
8 A. Haidara
1 P. Gulácsi
18 Fábio Carvalho
3 C. Lenz
13 N. Seiwald

Coach: M. Rose

FK Crvena Zvezda

3-5-2
18 O. Glazer G
24 N. Djiga D
15 A. Dragović D
23 M. Rodić D
33 S. Mijailović M
6 M. Stamenić M
66 Hwang In-Beom M
4 M. Ivanić M
80 S. Mitrović M
9 C. Ndiaye F
14 P. Olayinka F
Bench (11)
30 O. Bukari
2 K. Nedeljković
22 J. Mijatović
37 V. Lučić
10 A. Katai
1 Z. Popović
5 U. Spajić
20 K. Kangwa
8 G. Kanga
3 M. Degenek
70 U. Kabić

Coach: B. Bakhar

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

José Sánchez · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.