La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Mallorca
Barcelona
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | +7.3 | 16 |
| 2 |
Girona
|
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +9 | +3.3 | 16 |
| 3 |
Real Madrid
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | +3.8 | 15 |
| 4 |
Ath Bilbao
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +7 | +5.6 | 13 |
| 5 |
Ath Madrid
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +8 | +3.2 | 10 |
| 6 |
Valencia
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +3 | +0.5 | 10 |
| 7 |
Vallecano
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | +0.6 | 10 |
| 8 |
Sociedad
|
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | +1.2 | 9 |
| 9 |
Cadiz
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | -3.0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Betis
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | -2.2 | 8 |
| 11 |
Sevilla
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 12 |
Osasuna
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | -0.7 | 7 |
| 13 |
Villarreal
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | -1.7 | 7 |
| 14 |
Getafe
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -3.6 | 7 |
| 15 |
Alaves
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | -2.7 | 6 |
| 16 |
Las Palmas
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | -1.9 | 5 |
| 17 |
Mallorca
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | -1.9 | 5 |
| 18 |
Celta
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | -0.6 | 4 |
| 19 |
Granada
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | -6.9 | 3 |
| 20 |
Almeria
|
7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | +0.9 | 2 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Martin Valjent
D
Pablo Maffeo
D
Antonio Sánchez
M
Dani Rodríguez
M
Abdón Prats
F
Vedat Muriqi
F
Coach: J. Aguirre
Marc-André ter Stegen
G
João Cancelo
D
Ronald Araújo
D
Alejandro Baldé
D
İlkay Gündoğan
M
Gavi
M
Raphinha
F
Ferran Torres
F
Coach: Xavi
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Girona
Mallorca
Celta
Mallorca
Mallorca
Ath Bilbao
Granada
Mallorca
Mallorca
Villarreal
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.