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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Preston

U T T T U

2–2

Full-time

Southampton

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

58%

75%

Both score Ø 71%

67%

75%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,84 xG 0,77

28% Possession 72%

12 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 3. · Southampton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	13	12	0	1	+20	+12.1	36
2	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+12	+7.5	28
3	Preston	12	6	3	3	-2	-3.2	21
4	West Brom	13	5	5	3	+6	+0.9	20
5	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	+5	-0.2	20
6	Middlesbrough	13	6	2	5	+1	+8.6	20
7	Southampton	12	6	2	4	-3	+2.2	20
8	Sunderland	13	6	1	6	+6	+4.0	19
9	Leeds	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.6	19
10	Blackburn	13	6	1	6	-2	-0.3	19
11	Birmingham	12	5	3	4	+3	+2.7	18
12	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+2	-0.1	18
13	Norwich	12	5	2	5	+1	-1.1	17
14	Hull	12	4	5	3	+1	-1.0	17
15	Watford	13	4	4	5	+0	+1.3	16
16	Millwall	13	4	4	5	-3	-4.3	16
17	Coventry	12	3	6	3	+3	+4.5	15
18	Swansea	13	4	3	6	+1	-0.2	15
19	Huddersfield	13	3	5	5	-10	-4.6	14
20	Stoke	12	4	1	7	-5	-1.0	13
21	Plymouth	12	3	3	6	-1	-4.5	12
22	QPR	13	2	2	9	-15	-10.3	8
23	Rotherham	11	1	3	7	-12	-13.1	6
24	Sheffield Weds	12	0	3	9	-14	-7.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	7	6	0	1	+8	+5.2	18
2	Ipswich	6	5	0	1	+8	+7.0	15
3	Birmingham	6	4	2	0	+7	+3.3	14
4	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
5	Cardiff	6	4	1	1	+5	+1.8	13
6	Preston	6	4	1	1	+0	-1.9	13
7	Leeds	6	3	3	0	+5	+7.6	12
8	Norwich	6	4	0	2	+3	+1.8	12
9	Watford	7	3	2	2	+5	+4.0	11
10	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.0	10
11	Middlesbrough	6	3	1	2	+1	+5.2	10
12	Plymouth	6	3	0	3	+4	-0.9	9
13	Sunderland	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.7	9
14	Stoke	6	3	0	3	+0	-0.3	9
15	Blackburn	6	3	0	3	-3	+0.5	9
16	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.9	8
17	Swansea	7	2	2	3	+0	-0.2	8
18	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.8	8
19	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-6	-2.8	8
20	Hull	6	1	4	1	+1	+0.6	7
21	Millwall	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.7	7
22	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.4	5
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	2	4	-6	-2.3	2
24	QPR	5	0	1	4	-9	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	6	6	0	0	+12	+6.9	18
2	Ipswich	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.5	13
3	Southampton	6	4	0	2	-2	-0.6	12
4	Sunderland	7	3	1	3	+4	+3.3	10
5	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+1	-0.8	10
6	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.0	10
7	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.4	10
8	Hull	6	3	1	2	+0	-1.6	10
9	Millwall	6	2	3	1	+1	-2.7	9
10	Preston	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.3	8
11	Swansea	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.0	7
12	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
13	Cardiff	7	2	1	4	+0	-2.0	7
14	QPR	8	2	1	5	-6	-7.1	7
15	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	-1.9	6
16	Huddersfield	6	1	3	2	-4	-1.9	6
17	Coventry	6	1	2	3	-1	+0.5	5
18	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-2	-3.0	5
19	Watford	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.6	5
20	Birmingham	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.6	4
21	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-5	-0.7	4
22	Plymouth	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.6	3
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	1	5	-8	-5.2	1
24	Rotherham	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.