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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Real Madrid
U S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 64%
64%
64%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
64%
64%
Both score Ø 64%
73%
55%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,95 xG 0,35
57% Possession 43%
19 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 4
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

30. Apr -24 Bayern Munich – Real Madrid 2–2

Match report

Real Madrid Bayern Munich
27′
🔁 A. Davies
↦ S. Gnabry
Half-time 0–1
68′
⚽ A. Davies 0–1
H. Kane
L. Modrić 🔁
↦ T. Kroos
69′
E. Camavinga 🔁
↦ A. Tchouaméni
70′
73′
ℹ️ Alphonso Davies
VAR: Goal cancelled
76′
🔁 Kim Min-Jae
↦ L. Sané
Joselu 🔁
↦ F. Valverde
81′
Brahim Díaz 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
81′
84′
🔁 T. Müller
↦ J. Musiala
85′
🔁 E. Choupo-Moting
↦ H. Kane
1–1 Joselu ⚽
88′
2–1 Joselu ⚽
A. Rüdiger
91′
Joselu ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
92′
Éder Militão 🔁
↦ J. Bellingham
100′
Eduardo Camavinga 🟨
101′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-4-2
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
15 F. Valverde M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
5 J. Bellingham M
11 Rodrygo F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (11)
10 L. Modrić
12 E. Camavinga
14 Joselu
21 Brahim Díaz
3 Éder Militão
25 Kepa
1 T. Courtois
20 Fran García
19 Dani Ceballos
24 A. Güler
17 Lucas Vázquez

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
6 J. Kimmich D
4 M. de Ligt D
15 E. Dier D
40 N. Mazraoui D
27 K. Laimer M
45 A. Pavlović M
10 L. Sané M
42 J. Musiala M
7 S. Gnabry M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (10)
19 A. Davies
3 Kim Min-Jae
25 T. Müller
13 E. Choupo-Moting
2 D. Upamecano
39 M. Tel
26 S. Ulreich
18 Daniel Peretz
8 L. Goretzka
17 Bryan Zaragoza

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.