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La Liga

Referee: César Soto

Alaves

U S U T S

0–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 43%

23%

63%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,60 xG 0,91

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Alaves 17. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	22	4	5	+55	+39.5	70
2	Real Madrid	30	19	6	5	+32	+26.8	63
3	Ath Madrid	30	17	9	4	+25	+20.0	60
4	Ath Bilbao	30	14	12	4	+22	+16.5	54
5	Villarreal	29	13	9	7	+12	+19.6	48
6	Betis	30	13	9	8	+4	+9.2	48
7	Celta	31	12	7	12	-1	+9.9	43
8	Mallorca	31	12	7	12	-6	+1.1	43
9	Sociedad	31	12	5	14	-4	+0.3	41
10	Vallecano	30	10	10	10	-2	-1.6	40
11	Getafe	31	10	9	12	+3	-5.8	39
12	Osasuna	31	8	14	9	-8	-8.7	38
13	Valencia	31	9	10	12	-12	-10.1	37
14	Sevilla	31	9	9	13	-8	-9.3	36
15	Espanol	30	9	8	13	-7	-20.5	35
16	Girona	31	9	7	15	-10	-4.0	34
17	Alaves	30	7	9	14	-11	-2.7	30
18	Las Palmas	31	7	8	16	-15	-27.9	29
19	Leganes	31	6	10	15	-19	-24.7	28
20	Valladolid	30	4	4	22	-50	-27.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	12	1	2	+21	+22.2	37
2	Barcelona	15	11	1	3	+30	+29.4	34
3	Ath Madrid	15	10	4	1	+15	+18.4	34
4	Ath Bilbao	15	8	6	1	+18	+12.9	30
5	Celta	16	9	3	4	+8	+6.4	30
6	Betis	15	8	5	2	+8	+15.0	29
7	Osasuna	16	7	6	3	+5	+3.4	27
8	Valencia	16	8	3	5	+4	+2.9	27
9	Espanol	15	6	6	3	+3	-5.8	24
10	Sociedad	16	7	2	7	+0	+4.4	23
11	Mallorca	16	6	5	5	-1	-0.5	23
12	Villarreal	14	5	6	3	+8	+10.3	21
13	Girona	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.5	21
14	Vallecano	15	5	5	5	-3	+5.9	20
15	Getafe	16	4	7	5	+0	+2.5	19
16	Sevilla	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.5	19
17	Leganes	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.9	18
18	Alaves	14	4	4	6	-4	+0.8	16
19	Las Palmas	15	3	5	7	-6	-6.8	14
20	Valladolid	15	3	4	8	-17	-8.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	3	2	+25	+10.1	36
2	Villarreal	15	8	3	4	+4	+9.3	27
3	Real Madrid	15	7	5	3	+11	+4.6	26
4	Ath Madrid	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.7	26
5	Ath Bilbao	15	6	6	3	+4	+3.6	24
6	Getafe	15	6	2	7	+3	-8.3	20
7	Vallecano	15	5	5	5	+1	-7.6	20
8	Mallorca	15	6	2	7	-5	+1.5	20
9	Betis	15	5	4	6	-4	-5.9	19
10	Sociedad	15	5	3	7	-4	-4.1	18
11	Sevilla	16	4	5	7	-3	-7.8	17
12	Las Palmas	16	4	3	9	-9	-21.0	15
13	Alaves	16	3	5	8	-7	-3.5	14
14	Celta	15	3	4	8	-9	+3.5	13
15	Girona	16	3	4	9	-13	-10.5	13
16	Espanol	15	3	2	10	-10	-14.8	11
17	Osasuna	15	1	8	6	-13	-12.1	11
18	Leganes	15	1	7	7	-11	-14.7	10
19	Valencia	15	1	7	7	-16	-13.0	10
20	Valladolid	15	1	0	14	-33	-19.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.