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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Newcastle
S T S S T
3–0
Full-time
Benfica
U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,8
1,8
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
100%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,5
1,8
Scored
2,5
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,63 xG 0,33
52% Possession 48%
19 Shots 7
10 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
12 Corners 8
2 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Newcastle Benfica
Malick Thiaw 🟨
17′
1–0 A. Gordon ⚽
J. Murphy
32′
45′
🟨 Dodi Lukebakio
Half-time 1–0
Joelinton 🔁
↦ J. Ramsey
63′
H. Barnes 🔁
↦ J. Murphy
63′
63′
🔁 F. Ivanovic
↦ A. Dedic
2–0 H. Barnes ⚽
N. Pope
70′
3–0 H. Barnes ⚽
A. Gordon
83′
W. Osula 🔁
↦ N. Woltemade
85′
A. Elanga 🔁
↦ A. Gordon
85′
J. Willock 🔁
↦ Bruno Guimaraes
90′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
1 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
12 M. Thiaw D
4 S. Botman D
33 D. Burn D
39 Bruno Guimaraes M
67 L. Miley M
41 J. Ramsey M
23 J. Murphy F
27 N. Woltemade F
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (11)
32 A. Ramsdale
31 M. Thompson
5 F. Schar
7 Joelinton
8 S. Tonali
11 H. Barnes
17 E. Krafth
18 W. Osula
20 A. Elanga
28 J. Willock
37 A. Murphy

Coach: Eddie Howe

Benfica

4-4-1-1
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
4 A. Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
44 T. Araujo D
11 D. Lukebakio M
20 R. Rios M
5 E. Barrenechea M
8 F. Aursnes M
10 G. Sudakov F
14 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (12)
24 S. Soares
3 R. Obrador
9 F. Ivanovic
18 L. Barreiro
21 A. Schjelderup
26 S. Dahl
39 H. Araujo
66 J. Wynder
68 J. Veloso
84 J. Rego
86 D. Prioste
90 I. Lima

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 123 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.