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Champions League
Referee: D Siebert
PSV Eindhoven
U S U S S
6–2
Full-time
Napoli
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,89 xG 1,16
59% Possession 41%
19 Shots 10
8 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 8
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 9
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1

Match report

PSV Eindhoven Napoli
Yarek Gasiorowski 🟨
27′
Joey Veerman 🟨
30′
31′
⚽ S. McTominay 0–1
L. Spinazzola
0–2 A. Buongiorno ⚽
own goal
35′
1–2 I. Saibari ⚽
G. Til
38′
42′
🟨 Leonardo Spinazzola
Half-time 1–2
A. Obispo 🔁
↦ Y. Gasiorowski
46′
2–2 D. Man ⚽
Mauro Junior
54′
58′
🔁 M. Gutierrez
↦ L. Spinazzola
58′
🔁 Juan Jesus
↦ S. Beukema
58′
🔁 N. Lang
↦ B. Gilmour
Ismael Saibari 🟨
70′
73′
🔁 David Neres
↦ M. Politano
76′
🟥 Lorenzo Lucca
3–2 D. Man ⚽
J. Veerman
80′
S. Dest 🔁
↦ A. Salah-Eddine
84′
R. Pepi 🔁
↦ G. Til
84′
C. Driouech 🔁
↦ I. Perisic
84′
85′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ K. De Bruyne
86′
⚽ S. McTominay 3–3
David Neres
4–3 R. Pepi ⚽
C. Driouech
87′
P. Wanner 🔁
↦ I. Saibari
88′
5–3 C. Driouech ⚽
R. Pepi
89′
Couhaib Driouech 🟨
90′
Full-time 5–3

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1
32 M. Kovar G
6 R. Flamingo D
22 J. Schouten D
3 Y. Gasiorowski D
2 A. Salah-Eddine D
17 Mauro Junior M
23 J. Veerman M
27 D. Man M
34 I. Saibari M
5 I. Perisic M
20 G. Til F
Bench (10)
1 N. Olij
24 N. Schiks
4 A. Obispo
8 S. Dest
9 R. Pepi
10 P. Wanner
11 C. Driouech
19 E. Bajraktarevic
21 M. Boadu
39 A. Nagalo

Coach: Peter Bosz

Napoli

4-4-1-1
32 V. Milinkovic-Savic G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
31 S. Beukema D
4 A. Buongiorno D
37 L. Spinazzola D
21 M. Politano M
99 F. Anguissa M
6 B. Gilmour M
8 S. McTominay M
11 K. De Bruyne F
27 L. Lucca F
Bench (10)
1 A. Meret
25 M. Ferrante
3 M. Gutierrez
5 Juan Jesus
7 David Neres
17 M. Olivera
20 E. Elmas
26 A. Vergara
69 G. Ambrosino
70 N. Lang

Coach: Antonio Conte

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.