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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Marseille
U S T S S
2–1
Full-time
Newcastle
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 50%
25%
75%
Points per game
0,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
75%
75%
Both score Ø 38%
50%
25%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,00 xG 1,46
58% Possession 42%
18 Shots 20
7 Shots on target 9
5 Blocked shots 6
7 Goalkeeper saves 5
11 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 0
5 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Marseille Newcastle
Leonardo Balerdi 🟨
3′
6′
⚽ H. Barnes 0–1
20′
🟨 Joe Willock
Darryl Bakola 🟨
36′
42′
🟨 Anthony Gordon
Half-time 1–1
1–1 P. Aubameyang ⚽
D. Bakola
46′
2–1 P. Aubameyang ⚽
T. Weah
50′
Emerson Palmieri 🟨
52′
61′
🔁 L. Hall
↦ V. Livramento
61′
🔁 A. Elanga
↦ F. Schar
61′
🔁 L. Miley
↦ J. Murphy
M. O'Riley 🔁
↦ D. Bakola
62′
65′
🟨 Dan Burn
Mason Greenwood 🟨
67′
72′
🔁 N. Woltemade
↦ A. Gordon
72′
🔁 J. Ramsey
↦ J. Willock
Arthur Vermeeren 🟨
83′
A. Gomes 🔁
↦ M. Greenwood
88′
R. Vaz 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1
1 G. Rulli G
22 T. Weah D
28 B. Pavard D
5 L. Balerdi D
33 Emerson D
18 A. Vermeeren M
23 P. Hojbjerg M
10 M. Greenwood M
50 D. Bakola M
14 I. Paixao M
97 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (10)
12 J. De Lange
40 J. Van Neck
4 C. Egan-Riley
6 U. Garcia
8 A. Gomes
17 M. O'Riley
19 G. Kondogbia
26 B. Nadir
34 R. Vaz
76 T. Mmadi

Coach: Habib Beye

Newcastle

3-4-2-1
1 N. Pope G
12 M. Thiaw D
5 F. Schar D
33 D. Burn D
23 J. Murphy M
8 S. Tonali M
39 Bruno Guimaraes M
21 V. Livramento M
28 J. Willock F
11 H. Barnes F
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (11)
31 M. Thompson
32 A. Ramsdale
3 L. Hall
4 S. Botman
7 Joelinton
20 A. Elanga
27 N. Woltemade
37 A. Murphy
41 J. Ramsey
67 L. Miley
85 S. Alabi

Coach: Eddie Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.