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Champions League
Referee: D Makkelie
Atalanta
T S S S U
2–3
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,5
3,3
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
0,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
1,3
0,7
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,02 xG 1,74
70% Possession 30%
14 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 2
4 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Atalanta Ath Bilbao
1–0 G. Scamacca ⚽
N. Zalewski
16′
22′
🟨 Daniel Vivian
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 O. Sancet
↦ A. Boiro
54′
🟨 Mikel Jauregizar
58′
⚽ G. Guruzeta 1–1
R. Navarro
59′
🔁 M. Vesga
↦ M. Jauregizar
59′
🔁 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
↦ A. Rego
A. Lookman 🔁
↦ N. Zalewski
66′
N. Krstovic 🔁
↦ G. Scamacca
66′
68′
🔁 N. Serrano
↦ U. Gomez
70′
⚽ N. Serrano 1–2
R. Navarro
74′
⚽ R. Navarro 1–3
O. Sancet
L. Samardzic 🔁
↦ D. Zappacosta
76′
H. Ahanor 🔁
↦ S. Kolasinac
76′
81′
🔁 J. Areso
↦ A. Gorosabel
K. Sulemana 🔁
↦ L. Bernasconi
82′
2–3 N. Krstovic ⚽
A. Lookman
88′
Marco Carnesecchi 🟨
95′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
29 M. Carnesecchi G
3 O. Kossounou D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolasinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
15 M. De Roon M
13 Ederson M
47 L. Bernasconi M
17 C. De Ketelaere F
59 N. Zalewski F
9 G. Scamacca F
Bench (12)
31 F. Rossi
57 M. Sportiello
4 I. Hien
6 Y. Musah
7 K. Sulemana
8 M. Pasalic
10 L. Samardzic
11 A. Lookman
42 G. Scalvini
69 H. Ahanor
70 D. Maldini
90 N. Krstovic

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Ath Bilbao

3-4-2-1
1 U. Simon G
15 I. Lekue D
3 D. Vivian D
4 A. Paredes D
2 A. Gorosabel M
30 A. Rego M
18 M. Jauregizar M
19 A. Boiro M
11 G. Guruzeta F
23 R. Navarro F
20 U. Gomez F
Bench (12)
26 M. Santos
27 A. Padilla
6 M. Vesga
8 O. Sancet
12 J. Areso
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
22 N. Serrano
31 A. Hierro
33 A. Perez
34 J. De Luis
35 I. Sanchez
44 S. Sanchez

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.